A Rising Tide Lifts all Boats

Everyone but the Democrat leadership agrees that the Republicans will make huge gains today but the question is how big will the tide be? The concensus is that the Republicans will gain 60 seats or more. Because a rising tide does lift all boats, Marston Chronicles is predicting that the Republicans will gain a net 95 seats resulting in 273 seats for the Republicans and 162 for the Democrats. This will be the biggest margin for the Republicans in over 80 years.

The Democrat leadership including President Obama has managed to royally annoy a wide swath of the voting public and this is the inevitable result. Their arrogance and condescending attitude has alienated everyone but their base supporters. This is not a victory for the Republican Party but rather a defeat for the Democrat Party.

A wise Democrat leadership would receive this message and change course towards the middle but we doubt very much that this will happen. The Democrat leadership is composed of ideologues rather than politicians. Pushing an ideological agenda that the public does not support is a recipe for a political disaster.

In the Senate, the Republicans will wind up with between 49 and 52 seats. The most likely outcome is a tie in the Senate with Biden providing the tie breaking vote but there is a 50-50 chance the Republicans will gain control. In the governorships, the Republicans will most likely wind up with 32 states for a net gain of 8.

We have picked which House seats which we believe will wind up in Republican hands. Some of our picks for the Republicans will not happen and likewise some of our picks for the Democrats will not happen either, but on balance the outcome should be a 95 seat gain for the Republicans give or take a few seats. Here are our picks:

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC	LEAN DEMOCRATIC	DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB CA-36 Jane Harman 11.1% CA-53 Susan Davis 17.6% FL-19 Ted Deutch 8.2% IL-9 Jan Schakowsky 3.6% LA-2 Joseph Cao REP MN-8 James Oberstar 9.5% NY-21 Paul Tonko 11.2% NY-28 Louise Slaughter 15.5% NC-1 George Butterfield 3.5% WI-2 Tammy Baldwin 11.4% 9 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICAN	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB CA-23 Lois Capps 32.1% CA-27 Brad Sherman 20.8% CA-51 Bob Filner 37.8% CO-2 Jared Polis 24.5% DE-AL Open (Castle) REP FL-3 Corrine Brown 31.3% MA-2 Richard Neal 31.6% MI-15 John Dingell 36.4% MN-4 Betty McCollum 20.8% OR-4 Peter DeFazio 33.6% TN-5 Jim Cooper 38.1% TX-28 Henry Cuellar 39.1% UT-2 Jim Matheson 37.9% VA-8 James Moran 24.2% WV-3 Nick Rahall 21.7% 14 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICAN	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB AZ-7 Raul Grijalva 44.9% AR-4 Mike Ross 43.4% CA-10 John Garamendi 42.0% CA-18 Dennis Cardoza 46.9% CA-39 Linda Sanchez 42.8% CA-47 Loretta Sanchez 42.9% CT-1 John Larson 40.2% CT-2 Joe Courtney 40.3% IL-10 Open (Kirk) REP IN-7 Andre Carson 43.9% IA-1 Bruce Braley 44.6% KY-3 John Yarmuth 47.7% ME-2 Michael Michaud 49.4% MD-2 Dutch Ruppersberger 42.2% MA-3 James McGovern 45.5% MA-4 Barney Frank 41.5% MS-2 Bennie Thompson 46.0% MO-3 Russ Carnahan 41.4% MO-4 Ike Skelton 47.8% NJ-6 Frank Pallone, Jr. 45.4% NJ-12 Rush Holt 42.4% NM-3 Ben Lujan 48.4% NY-2 Steve Israel 44.7% NY-4 Carolyn McCarthy 48.4% NY-13 Michael McMahon 48.8% NY-22 Maurice Hinchey 47.5% NY-27 Brian Higgins 43.2% NC-13 Brad Miller 41.2% OH-10 Dennis Kucinich 43.5% OH-17 Tim Ryan 40.4% OR-1 David Wu 40.1% PA-13 Allyson Schwartz 47.7% PA-17 Tim Holden 42.9% RI-1 Open (Kennedy) 49.3% TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa 43.3% TX-25 Lloyd Doggett 40.2% WA-1 Jay Inslee 44.5% WA-6 Norm Dicks 45.6% WI-3 Ron Kind 45.4% 37 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICAN

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP	LEAN REPUBLICAN	LIKELY REPUBLICAN
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB CA-20 Jim Costa 59.1% CO-7 Ed Perlmutter 58.0% CT-5 Chris Murphy 58.4% ID-1 Walt Minnick 51.4% IL-8 Melissa Bean 51.5% IN-2 Joe Donnelly 58.5% IA-3 Leonard Boswell 59.5% KY-6 Ben Chandler 51.7% ME-1 Chellie Pingree 53.7% MA-6 James Tierney 52.4% MA-10 Open (Delahunt) 58.8% NH-2 Open (Hodes) 51.1% NM-1 Martin Heinrich 50.3% NY-1 Timothy Bishop 56.5% NY-4 Carolyn McCarthy 52.4% NY-25 Daniel Maffei 50.7% NC-4 David Price 51.3% NC-7 Mike Mcintyre 59.2% NC-8 Larry Kissell 56.9% OH-6 Charles Wilson 54.2% PA-4 Jason Altmire 54.1% TN-4 Lincoln Davis 55.8% TX-27 Solomon Ortiz 59.7% VA-9 Frederick Boucher 55.7% WA-9 Adam Smith 53.4% WV-1 Open (Mollohan) 53.6% 26 DEMOCRATS	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick 77.9% AZ-5 Harry Mitchell 79.2% AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords 75.4% AR-1 Open (Barry) 77.4% CA-11 Gerald McNerney 72.1% CO-3 John Salazar 79.9% CT-4 Jim Himes 63.4% FL-2 Allen Boyd 74.6% FL-22 Ron Klein 67.7% FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas 77.7% GA-2 Sanford Bishop 60.7% GA-8 Jim Marshall 67.6% GA-12 John Barrow 62.4% HI-1 Charles Dijou (R) 61.5% IL-14 Bill Foster 66.2% IL-17 Phil Hare 60.6% IN-9 Baron Hill 77.9% IA-2 Dave Loebsack 64.1% MA-5 Nikki Tsongas 63.0% MI-1 Open (Stupak) 75.1% MI-9 Gary Peters 64.6% MN-1 Tim Walz 61.6% MS-1 Travis Childers 72.0% MS-4 Gene Taylor 61.3% NJ-3 John Adler 74.7% NM-2 Harry Teague 78.8% NY-19 John Hall 64.4% NY-20 Scott Murphy 71.5% NY-23 William Owens 79.5% NY-24 Michael Arcuri 63.0% NC-2 Bob Etheridge 61.4% NC-11 Heath Shuler 61.3% ND-AL Earl Pomeroy 73.2% OH-13 Betty Sutton 62.7% OH-16 John Boccieri 77.8% OH-18 Zach Space 65.3% OR-5 Kurt Schrader 60.7% PA-7 Open (Sestak) 70.1% PA-10 Christopher Carney 69.2% PA-12 Mark Critz 63.5% SC-5 John Spratt 63.4% SD-AL Stephanie Sandlin 72.4% TX-23 Cyro Rodriguez 68.1% VA-2 Glenn Nye 79.3% VA-11 Gerald Connolly 62.7% WA-2 Rick Larsen 66.4% WA-3 Open (Baird) 78.9% WI-7 Open (Obey) 68.8% 47 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICAN	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB CO-4 Betsy Markey 82.0% FL-8 Alan Grayson 96.0% IL-11 Debbie Halvorson 81.4% IN-8 Open (Ellsworth) 88.2% KS-3 Open (Moore) 97.6% MI-7 Mark Schauer 92.8% NV-3 Dina Titus 88.1% NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter 90.2% OH-1 Steven Driehaus 92.6% PA-8 Patrick Murphy 88.7% PA-11 Paul Kanjorski 88.8% TX-17 Chester Edwards 91.3% WI-8 Steve Kagen 83.6% 13 DEMOCRATS SAFE REPUBLICAN DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB AL-2 Bobby Bright 100.7% AR-2 Open (Synder) 102.0% LA-3 Open (Melancon) 113.2% MD-1 Frank Kratovil 107.9% NY-29 Open (Massa) 110.9% OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy 105.5% PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper 104.9% TN-6 Open (Gordon) 110.0% TN-8 Open (Tanner) 104.7% VA-5 Tom Perriello 109.5% 10 DEMOCRATS

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member

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Senate Outlook

These tables reflect only the Democrat seats that are up this year. While a few Republican seats are not absolutely certain, we project the Republicans will retain all of their existing seats. At this time, if the toss-ups break 3 - 2 for the Republicans as we show here, there will be a tie in the Senate since the two independents caucus with the Democrats thus giving Vice-President Biden the tie breaking vote. The 5 toss-up seats will decide who controls Congress. Last month Kirk was ahead by 3 points over Giannoulias in the polls but he is down 1 this month so we had to transfer Illinois from Republican toss-up to Democrat toss-up.

STATUS	DEMOCRATS	TOSS-UPS	REPUBLICANS	INDEPENDENTS
NOT UP THIS YEAR	39		23	2
UP THIS YEAR	7	5	24
TOTALS	46	5	47	2

SAFE DEMOCRAT	LIKELY DEMOCRAT	DEMOCRAT TOSS UP
STATE SENATOR PROB Connecticut Open -6.8% Hawaii Daniel Inouye -577.8% Maryland Barbara Mikulski -23.8% New York Chuck Schumer -189.1% Vermont Patrick Leahy -284.4% 5 DEMOCRATS	STATE SENATOR PROB New York Kirsten Gillibrand 35.6% Oregon Ron Wyden 15.5% 2 DEMOCRATS	STATE SENATOR PROB California Barbara Boxer 46.9% Illinois Open 46.3% 2 DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP	LEAN REPUBLICAN	LIKELY REPUBLICAN
STATE SENATOR PROB Nevada Harry Reid 54.3% Washington Patty Murray 52.2% Wisconsin Russ Feingold 54.6% 3 DEMOCRATS	STATE SENATOR PROB Arkansas Blanche Lincoln 65.1% Colorado Michael Bennet 63.5% Delaware Open 65.4% Indiana Open 67.7% Pennsylvania Open 61.7% 5 DEMOCRATS	STATE SENATOR PROB North Dakota Open 85.9% 1 DEMOCRAT

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Bye-Bye Bayh

Senator Evan Bayh has decided that the odds of his getting re-elected were not that good and decided to pack it in while he was ahead. We find this interesting because we had him rated at only a 37.2% chance of losing. We have had to change our rating to a 74.2% chance that the Republicans will pick up this now open seat. What is interesting is that we had 11 other seats with a better chance of going Republican than Indiana. Actually there were 12 seats with a better chance but Scott Brown already picked up one of them in the Massachusetts special election last month. If the incumbent in our weakest real possibility of a seat going Republican decided he should quit, what does that say about the other 11 seats?

This retirement would ordinarily mean that control of the Senate would now go to the Republicans since they would pick up another 12 seats for a total of 53 versus 47 for the Democrats. The only reason this is in doubt is because the Republican Party cannot get candidates to run in three of the seats to get them above a tie with Vice-President Biden casting the deciding vote. Can you believe that? Polls show the Republicans could beat Gillibrand in New York but Pataki will not commit to run. They show that Thompson could beat Feingold in Wisconsin but Thompson is not even interested. They also show that Rossi could beat Murray in Washington and he has not decided to run either.

The Republicans have a golden opportunity to win control of the Senate and they cannot get good candidates to run. What are we to make of this? It would appear that the Republicans have gotten so used to losing elections in the last four years that they cannot even get candidates to try. We show 12 seats with a better than even mathematical chance of winning in our Senate target table. With the sudden addition of Indiana, only 7 of these seats are really good bets. Illinois and California are toss-ups and the other three have candidates who could win and will not commit to run. Illinois is a pretty good bet because Kirk is ahead of Giannoullias by 6 points. That makes 8 seats leaning Republican which would put the Republicans down by one in the Senate, 51-49.

The polls still show Boxer ahead in California over Campbell by 4 points but they also showed Bayh ahead by only three points and he decided to throw in the towel. What does that say about Boxer? Granted Indiana is red state and California is a solid blue one but so is Massachusetts and look at what happened there. Obviously California is not critical to gain control of the Senate if the Republicans could just get decent candidates to run in three odds on bets races. Is anyone listening out there in Republican land? Part of the problem is that Republicans do not even believe they can gain control of the House let alone the Senate because most analysts do not show them gaining more than 30 seats.

We hate to tell those analysts that they are wrong but they are. 2010 is shaping up to be a better year than 1994 for the Republicans. In 1994, the Republicans gained 52 seats in the House and 9 seats in the Senate. They only need 40 more seats in the House and 10 in the Senate to gain control of both houses. Gaining control of the House is highly likely at this point. The Senate is within their grasp but only if the Republicans can get good candidates to run.

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The Sky is Really Falling

From The Marston Chronicles

In 45 years of being heavily involved in politics, we have never seen anything like this. Having been hammered for two elections, the Republican Party was totally on the ropes with only 40 Senate seats and 178 House seats. This is down from 55 Senate seats and 232 House seats in just four years. Now just 15 months later, the Republicans are poised to regain control of both houses in Congress in November. We are projecting a 58 seat gain in the House which would give them four more seats than they lost in the last two elections. We were projecting only a 44 seat gain just three weeks ago.

The Senate has been considered totally out of reach by everyone, ourselves included, until the election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts. The reverberations of that election are still striking every nook and cranny of the American political world. Races that would have been considered totally hopeless are now in play. Since there were only 19 Democrat held seats in play, how could the Republicans possibly expect to pick up 11 more to regain control of the Senate? The seats in Hawaii, Vermont and Schumers's seat in New York were and still are totally out of reach.

Who would believe that the Republicans would have a snowball's chance in hell of picking up 11 of the remaining 16 seats? On top of this, three more seats in Connecticut, Maryland and Oregon are really long shots even now. For example, Senator Wyden in Oregon does not even have a Republican opponent and his seat is the best bet of the three. So that left the Republicans with having to pick up 11 of the remaining 13 seats to regain control. They have already picked up the Massachusetts seat with the election of Scott Brown so now they need 10 of 12 seats. You could have gotten odds of 100 to 1 that the Republicans could not do that. If we were in Las Vegas right now and had some money to spare, we sure would be placing a bet that the Republicans would regain control of both houses of Congress in November.

If you look at our table of vulnerable Democrat held seats in the Senate, you will see the latest polls for each seat where they have been taken so far. In those 12 seats, a possible or actual Republican candidate is ahead in 9 of them. This simply cannot be happening and since it is, the sky must really be falling. Of course, there are some problems in three of these good chance seats in that Pataki in New York, Thompson in Wisconsin and Rossi in Washington have not committed to run yet. Even unannounced, they are ahead of Gillibrand, Feingold and Murray. This is totally unbelievable. If these three run and the election were held today, there would be a tie in the Senate and Vice-President Biden would be casting the tie breaking vote for the Democrats.

But wait, we are not done yet. Let's look at the other three seats left out of the 12: Illinois, California and Indiana. We will not know about Illinois until a poll is taken after today's primary. In California, Boxer is only ahead of Campbell by 4 points and Bayh is only ahead of Hostettler by 3 in Indiana. It is entirely possible that the Republicans could pick up all 12 seats and that is just totally unreal. Things like this just do not happen in politics but then Republicans do not get elected in Massachusetts, the most Democrat state in the union, to fill a seat once held by two Kennedy brothers either.

How could this be happening? The only plausible answer is that there is a massive rejection by the voting public of the agenda being pushed by the Democrat trifecta of Obama, Reid and Pelosi. Trying to jam health care reform down our throats, trying terrorists as common criminals and spending money like a whole carrier full of drunken sailors on Uncle Sam's credit card is ringing up a massive no sale for the Democrats. No one likes rejection but the worst thing you can do is to pretend it is not happening. That is definitely whistling past the graveyard. In this case, the graveyard is where the far left agenda of the trifecta is being buried right now. The Democrats need to "straighten up and fly right", so to speak, or suffer the most disastrous defeat in the history of modern politics.

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How Will the Media Handle a Solid Brown Win?

The mainstream media has not made much of a secret about their feelings in favor of Obama. A solid win (by five or more points) by Brown would be one of the biggest political upsets in history. It would require that the news media try to explain how this could have happened. Will they make excuses for Obama and the Democrats or will they be honest and admit that the arrogant attitude on the part of the Democratic leadership had a lot to do with it? If they do what they have been doing, they will blame just Coakley and her campaign. While Coakley has indeed run an abysmal campaign, that alone cannot explain such an upset.

Massachusetts is the most Democratic state in the union if you do not count the District of Columbia as a state. Massachusetts has given the last three Democratic candidates for President an average of a 26.09% margin which is higher than any other state. It has not elected a Republican Senator since 1972. For a Republican senatorial candidate to ever carry this state would be a remarkable feat but to win the seat held by Teddy Kennedy for almost 50 years just boggles the mind. Now there is no reasonable way that the media can ignore these facts. This is their last chance to show that they have any integrity left and to retain some semblance of credibility. If they try to spin the significance of this political earthquake as anything but an utter repudiation of the Obama/Reid/Pelosi agenda, they will be toast.

Right now they are hoping to get a pass by having Coakley somehow manage to squeak out a narrow victory. Three polls taken on Sunday are unanimous in showing Brown ahead. Two of them have him up by an identical 9.6% and the Public Policy Poll has him up by 5 points. The chance of their getting a pass is mighty slim. Even Obama said that a Brown win will seriously negatively impact his agenda which is why he went to Massachusetts to try and get Coakley over the finish line. Obama is the one who by his own words told the voters of Massachusetts that he needs them to elect Coakley to save his agenda. When Brown wins, how else can one honestly explain the results as anything but a repudiation of that agenda?

Based on their past performance, we suspect the mainstream media will not be pointing this fact out. In a way, that does not really matter since any Democrat elected federal politician will definitely draw the conclusion that if a Senate seat in Massachusetts is not safe, then no seat is safe any more. Since this election was in large part a referendum on the health care bill and the way it was jammed through Congress against united Republican opposition, health care will be a very hot potato for Democrats. More Democrats will either decide to retire or decide to vote against any compromise bill that is drafted even if they can bring it to a vote before Brown is seated. Any attempt to do that will have a tremendous fallout in November.

The bottom line is that this is the mainstream media's last chance to get a political story right. If they fail to do this, then a lot of liberal newspapers will be filing for bankruptcy in the near future. In television, the major networks will have a remarkable ratings drop off while Fox gains dramatically. So it comes down to ideology versus survival. Somehow we do not believe the mainstream media will see this as a matter of survival and will therefore take the ideological road. Oh well, this will merely hasten what will eventually happen anyway. With the internet readily available, who needs the mainstream media any more anyway?

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Scott Brown: He Did It His Way

The Massachusetts Senatorial special election is now the talk of every town. Three weeks ago, it was not the talk of any town. What has made the difference? None of this sudden interest would have been possible if it was not for Scott Brown himself. He is the one who took on a "hopeless" candidacy and made it all possible. Without his tireless efforts that resulted in convincing the Massachusetts voters that he was a breath of fresh air in the stale politics of Massachusetts and that he cared about them, none of this would have been possible. Since Massachusetts has not elected a Republican since 1976 and that was a person who was the rarest of rarities, a black Republican, what chance did Scott Brown have? The conventional wisdom said he had no chance but that did not deter him for giving it his best shot.

Because of that intense effort on his part, we became convinced he had a reasonable chance of making the impossible possible and wrote an article called How to Stop Obama Care Now on December 27th. In it we pointed out that once Obama care passed, it could never be repealed and why. We begged people to support Scott Brown to provide the 41st vote to stop Obama care in it's tracks. We spread this article to everyone we know on the Conservative blogosphere and waited for a response. What we got was nothing so two days later we wrote another article, The Deafening Silence, and did the same thing. On the third day, the boyz at hillbuzz.org got on board and so did Hot Air. From there, it spread like wildfire to the other Conservative websites.

What this does is point out what a powerful tool the internet is to conservative activists. One of us can spot a chink in the liberal Democrat armor, publicize it on the blogosphere and we then can jump on it and energize the conservative base. We can all think of the role that the above websites plus Gateway Pundit, Red State, Wake Up America, American Thinker, etc have played by calling attention to something the rest of us overlooked. Yes, it is true that without the Conservative blogosphere pushing this race and getting millions of dollars donated to Scott Brown, he would not be winning. On the other hand, if Scott Brown himself had not made this race competitive by his own effort, the Conservative base would not have had a golden opportunity to jump on.

As we pointed out in another piece, Why Scott Brown for Senator, Scott is a campaign manager's dream come true. He just has it all and he has used his ability to connect with the people to great advantage. His resume is fantastic and his family is a magnificent bonus. Scott Brown is the picture perfect candidate for the Republicans and the way he and his team have handled the campaign has been equally perfect. Of course, as we pointed out in The Democrat Party Is Our Best Friend, the Democrats have gone out of their way help us by alienating just about everyone not in their base. On top of that, Martha Coakley has to be the worst candidate and has the worst campaign staff since McCain and that is saying a lot. Every day she has opened her mouth and inserted her foot. If the Democrats think that sending Obama to Boston on Sunday will save this dog of a campaign, they are whistling by the graveyard.

All of this is why a poll conducted for Pajamas Media by Cross Target Polling shows Brown up by 15 points. While we are not ready to buy that big a margin, we do predict that Scott will win by at least five points. What we have here is the "Perfect Storm" race where it all came together for the Republicans. They had the perfect candidate against the worst candidate at a time of great unease in the voting populace about all of the wheeling and dealing in Washington DC. A hard working candidate caught the imagination and support of the Conservative base with the help of the Conservative blogosphere and the rest as they say is history. Massachusetts elects a Republican to replace Ted Kennedy? Who would have believed it three weeks ago?

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The Democrat Party is our Best Friend

Surely we jest? No, we are serious because right off hand we cannot think of much more they could do to guarantee that they will be drummed out of office. What is more, they will stay out of power until the Republicans get fat and happy and screw up again as they most surely will. At every turn, the Democrats stick it to the American people and do not even have any shame about doing so. They even brag about using our money to buy votes for their outrageous bills. Never in my life have I seen any elected officials adopt such a "my way or the highway" attitude. Apparently they think that the American people will continue to put up with their incredible chutzpah. In this they err.

What has always annoyed me about the Republican Party is its propensity to shoot itself in the foot. It has no instinct for the jugular. Republicans just feel that it is beneath them to get down in the trenches and play hardball. They feel they are the good guys and it is beneath them to adopt the slash and burn tactics of the Democrats. Their idea of how to beat Democrats is to offer the voting public a Democrat-lite agenda. They do not try or even promise to cut back on the ever expanding voracious federal government or even to balance the budget. All they do is promise to cut back on how much it grows. If the public has no problem with the federal government running their lives, why would they vote for a wimpy statist agenda when they can have the real thing?

We have seen the Republican Party blow an election that there is no way they should have lost. How about the New York 23 congressional race when they spent a million dollars backing a candidate who was further to the left than the Democrat candidate? How about the wimpy McCain campaign? He decided that it was not polite to bring up the sordid past of a fellow Senator. Thus he did not constantly hammer Obama about his associations with racists, domestic terrorists and Chicago crooks. Those were the only subjects worth talking about along with the sorriest excuse for proven ability to be able to run anything but a wheelbarrow in many decades.

Thus we are stunned to suddenly see the Democrats adopt the Republicans stupid shoot themselves in the foot strategy. In fact, they have doubled down and are blowing off both feet. In the midst of a recession that is rapidly turning into a full blown depression, their only real concern is jamming a very unpopular health care system down our throats. They are so determined to do this that they will sacrifice a lot of seats in Congress and adopt any means no matter how unscrupulous and dishonest they are to reach that end. They have done everything they accused the Republicans of doing multiplied many times over. Then they turn around and tell us obvious lies about what they are doing. This behavior is a gift to the Republican Party that keeps on giving.

The latest example of this kind of stupidity is the Massachusetts special election for the Senate. Massachusetts is the most Democrat state in the Union (excluding the District of Columbia) so there is no way that a Republican should comes even close in this election. Since the Democrat machine knew this, they and their candidate just coasted along sure of their victory. Their candidate actually went on vacation during a campaign that was only six weeks long. Yet Scott Brown has closed the gap from thirty-one points behind to just nine. Since this is a special election with a low turnout, you need to look at the certain voters where Brown was only behind by two points. He has the momentum and has a minimum of a 50-50 chance to win.

Not satisfied with letting Scott Brown steal a march on them, they made it clear that everyone knew that the Kennedy family had decided that Ted Kennedy's seat should go to the Democrat candidate and had the Democrat legislature and governor change the law about federal office vacancies a second time. Meanwhile, back in Washington, the Democratic leadership is doing everything they can to piss off the voting public. It was only when the Rasmussen poll came out that they suddenly realized that this race was not a foregone conclusion and they needed to get busy. Public Policy Polling took a poll this weekend and reports that it is Brown 48 and Coakley 47.

Sensing this was the case, the Massachusetts Democrats finally got so worried that they decided to adopt a plan B just in case Scott Brown won which was clearly becoming a very distinct possibility. Since they cannot pass their health care bill if Brown wins, the place holding Democrat Senator, Paul Kirk, announced that he would continue to provide the 60th vote even if Scott Brown won. See Scott Brown swearing-in would be stalled to pass health-care reform for the details. Not even the bumbling Republicans would be so stupid as to announce such an end run. Some idiot in the Massachusetts Secretary of State's office actually opined that it would take a month before the results of the election could be certified and by that time Obama care would be a done deal.

The voters of Massachusetts are obviously willing to put up with a lot but this one really takes the cake. Everything in this election depends upon how well the independents turn out. They are running three to one for Brown. If this "let them eat cake" attitude on the part of the Massachusetts Democrat machine does not get those independents to turn out and take that machine down a whole bunch of notches, then nothing else ever will.

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Why Scott Brown for Senator?

Many of us have been beating the drum for Scott Brown because he would be the 41st Republican vote in the U. S. Senate. With only 59 votes left to the Democrats, they could not stop a filibuster against the Obama health care bill when it comes back to the Senate to be voted on. While that is reason enough to vote for him, that overlooks what else this country gets with him in the Senate. Folks, what you get here is what has to be the epitome of the ideal political candidate. Never in 45 years in politics have we seen a candidate like this one. He just has it all. Let's start with his accomplishments so far.

State Senator Scott Brown represents the Norfolk, Bristol, and Middlesex District, in the Massachusetts Senate. Senator Brown was elected to the Massachusetts Senate in a special election on March 2, 2004, was re-elected on November 2, 2004, won re-election unopposed on November 7, 2006, and was re-elected on November 4, 2008. This is his third term in the Senate. Previously, Senator Brown served three terms in the Massachusetts House of Representatives from the 9th Norfolk District. Prior to his election to the House in 1998, Brown served as a Wrentham Selectman for three years and before that, as Town Assessor for three years.

Senator Brown is a graduate of Wakefield High School, Tufts University, and Boston College Law School. He is a practicing attorney, and a 29 -year member of the Massachusetts National Guard, where he currently holds the rank of Lt. Colonel in the Judge Advocate General’s Corps. Brown was awarded the Army Commendation Medal for meritorious service in homeland security after the attacks of September 11, 2001.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) recognized Senator Brown as a “Guardian of Small Business” for his work in creating and maintaining jobs in Massachusetts. Senator Brown has also received an "A" rating from the Associated Industries of Massachusetts, both for his efforts in promoting job growth and retaining companies within the commonwealth. Senator Brown received the 2004 “Public Servant of the Year” Award from the United Chamber of Commerce, for his leadership in reforming the state’s sex offender laws and protecting the rights of victims.

Senator Brown is one of the State’s most outspoken advocates for victims of sexual abuse, and is a tireless supporter of veterans’ causes. As a member of the Hidden Wounds of War Commission, Brown traveled the Commonwealth to research how State government can do a more thorough job of preventing veterans from falling through the cracks and not receiving the mental health services that they may require.

Many politicians would kill for a political resume like that one. On top of that, he has a real way with words and comes across as earnest and honest. That is a rare commodity in a politician especial in state like Massachusetts where political corruption is pretty much the norm. Then there is the no small matter of his looks, always a good thing in politics. He was only 22 when Cosmopolitan magazine voted him America's sexiest man which led him into a modeling career.

Finally, one of his biggest assets is his family. His wife, Gail, is a well known television newsperson in Boston and is a former model herself. He has two very attractive daughters. His older daughter, Ayla, is a champion basketball player who was voted the outstanding female basketball player in Massachusetts. Her point total (2,358) is the sixth highest in the history of the state even with the males included. She is in her senior year at Boston College on a full athletic scholarship. She is a forward on the Boston College Eagles where she is called "Downtown Ayla Brown" for her expertise in three pointers.

If that is not enough, she is a recording artist whose debut album, Forward, was released in March of 2006 and reached 34 on Billboard's AC chart. She is well known in Massachusetts for her achievements. You can find her singing the national anthem with the Boston Pops Orchestra on July 4th at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U5SGSr6kXY. She reached the final eight in female contestants on American Idol. Her sister, Arianna, is attending Syracuse College. Where do you find political families like this one with real achievements?

The Brown Family

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