A Rising Tide Lifts all Boats

Everyone but the Democrat leadership agrees that the Republicans will make huge gains today but the question is how big will the tide be? The concensus is that the Republicans will gain 60 seats or more. Because a rising tide does lift all boats, Marston Chronicles is predicting that the Republicans will gain a net 95 seats resulting in 273 seats for the Republicans and 162 for the Democrats. This will be the biggest margin for the Republicans in over 80 years.

The Democrat leadership including President Obama has managed to royally annoy a wide swath of the voting public and this is the inevitable result. Their arrogance and condescending attitude has alienated everyone but their base supporters. This is not a victory for the Republican Party but rather a defeat for the Democrat Party.

A wise Democrat leadership would receive this message and change course towards the middle but we doubt very much that this will happen. The Democrat leadership is composed of ideologues rather than politicians. Pushing an ideological agenda that the public does not support is a recipe for a political disaster.

In the Senate, the Republicans will wind up with between 49 and 52 seats. The most likely outcome is a tie in the Senate with Biden providing the tie breaking vote but there is a 50-50 chance the Republicans will gain control. In the governorships, the Republicans will most likely wind up with 32 states for a net gain of 8.

We have picked which House seats which we believe will wind up in Republican hands. Some of our picks for the Republicans will not happen and likewise some of our picks for the Democrats will not happen either, but on balance the outcome should be a 95 seat gain for the Republicans give or take a few seats. Here are our picks:

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC	LEAN DEMOCRATIC	DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB CA-36 Jane Harman 11.1% CA-53 Susan Davis 17.6% FL-19 Ted Deutch 8.2% IL-9 Jan Schakowsky 3.6% LA-2 Joseph Cao REP MN-8 James Oberstar 9.5% NY-21 Paul Tonko 11.2% NY-28 Louise Slaughter 15.5% NC-1 George Butterfield 3.5% WI-2 Tammy Baldwin 11.4% 9 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICAN	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB CA-23 Lois Capps 32.1% CA-27 Brad Sherman 20.8% CA-51 Bob Filner 37.8% CO-2 Jared Polis 24.5% DE-AL Open (Castle) REP FL-3 Corrine Brown 31.3% MA-2 Richard Neal 31.6% MI-15 John Dingell 36.4% MN-4 Betty McCollum 20.8% OR-4 Peter DeFazio 33.6% TN-5 Jim Cooper 38.1% TX-28 Henry Cuellar 39.1% UT-2 Jim Matheson 37.9% VA-8 James Moran 24.2% WV-3 Nick Rahall 21.7% 14 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICAN	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB AZ-7 Raul Grijalva 44.9% AR-4 Mike Ross 43.4% CA-10 John Garamendi 42.0% CA-18 Dennis Cardoza 46.9% CA-39 Linda Sanchez 42.8% CA-47 Loretta Sanchez 42.9% CT-1 John Larson 40.2% CT-2 Joe Courtney 40.3% IL-10 Open (Kirk) REP IN-7 Andre Carson 43.9% IA-1 Bruce Braley 44.6% KY-3 John Yarmuth 47.7% ME-2 Michael Michaud 49.4% MD-2 Dutch Ruppersberger 42.2% MA-3 James McGovern 45.5% MA-4 Barney Frank 41.5% MS-2 Bennie Thompson 46.0% MO-3 Russ Carnahan 41.4% MO-4 Ike Skelton 47.8% NJ-6 Frank Pallone, Jr. 45.4% NJ-12 Rush Holt 42.4% NM-3 Ben Lujan 48.4% NY-2 Steve Israel 44.7% NY-4 Carolyn McCarthy 48.4% NY-13 Michael McMahon 48.8% NY-22 Maurice Hinchey 47.5% NY-27 Brian Higgins 43.2% NC-13 Brad Miller 41.2% OH-10 Dennis Kucinich 43.5% OH-17 Tim Ryan 40.4% OR-1 David Wu 40.1% PA-13 Allyson Schwartz 47.7% PA-17 Tim Holden 42.9% RI-1 Open (Kennedy) 49.3% TX-15 Ruben Hinojosa 43.3% TX-25 Lloyd Doggett 40.2% WA-1 Jay Inslee 44.5% WA-6 Norm Dicks 45.6% WI-3 Ron Kind 45.4% 37 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICAN

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP	LEAN REPUBLICAN	LIKELY REPUBLICAN
DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB CA-20 Jim Costa 59.1% CO-7 Ed Perlmutter 58.0% CT-5 Chris Murphy 58.4% ID-1 Walt Minnick 51.4% IL-8 Melissa Bean 51.5% IN-2 Joe Donnelly 58.5% IA-3 Leonard Boswell 59.5% KY-6 Ben Chandler 51.7% ME-1 Chellie Pingree 53.7% MA-6 James Tierney 52.4% MA-10 Open (Delahunt) 58.8% NH-2 Open (Hodes) 51.1% NM-1 Martin Heinrich 50.3% NY-1 Timothy Bishop 56.5% NY-4 Carolyn McCarthy 52.4% NY-25 Daniel Maffei 50.7% NC-4 David Price 51.3% NC-7 Mike Mcintyre 59.2% NC-8 Larry Kissell 56.9% OH-6 Charles Wilson 54.2% PA-4 Jason Altmire 54.1% TN-4 Lincoln Davis 55.8% TX-27 Solomon Ortiz 59.7% VA-9 Frederick Boucher 55.7% WA-9 Adam Smith 53.4% WV-1 Open (Mollohan) 53.6% 26 DEMOCRATS	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick 77.9% AZ-5 Harry Mitchell 79.2% AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords 75.4% AR-1 Open (Barry) 77.4% CA-11 Gerald McNerney 72.1% CO-3 John Salazar 79.9% CT-4 Jim Himes 63.4% FL-2 Allen Boyd 74.6% FL-22 Ron Klein 67.7% FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas 77.7% GA-2 Sanford Bishop 60.7% GA-8 Jim Marshall 67.6% GA-12 John Barrow 62.4% HI-1 Charles Dijou (R) 61.5% IL-14 Bill Foster 66.2% IL-17 Phil Hare 60.6% IN-9 Baron Hill 77.9% IA-2 Dave Loebsack 64.1% MA-5 Nikki Tsongas 63.0% MI-1 Open (Stupak) 75.1% MI-9 Gary Peters 64.6% MN-1 Tim Walz 61.6% MS-1 Travis Childers 72.0% MS-4 Gene Taylor 61.3% NJ-3 John Adler 74.7% NM-2 Harry Teague 78.8% NY-19 John Hall 64.4% NY-20 Scott Murphy 71.5% NY-23 William Owens 79.5% NY-24 Michael Arcuri 63.0% NC-2 Bob Etheridge 61.4% NC-11 Heath Shuler 61.3% ND-AL Earl Pomeroy 73.2% OH-13 Betty Sutton 62.7% OH-16 John Boccieri 77.8% OH-18 Zach Space 65.3% OR-5 Kurt Schrader 60.7% PA-7 Open (Sestak) 70.1% PA-10 Christopher Carney 69.2% PA-12 Mark Critz 63.5% SC-5 John Spratt 63.4% SD-AL Stephanie Sandlin 72.4% TX-23 Cyro Rodriguez 68.1% VA-2 Glenn Nye 79.3% VA-11 Gerald Connolly 62.7% WA-2 Rick Larsen 66.4% WA-3 Open (Baird) 78.9% WI-7 Open (Obey) 68.8% 47 DEMOCRATS 1 REPUBLICAN	DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB CO-4 Betsy Markey 82.0% FL-8 Alan Grayson 96.0% IL-11 Debbie Halvorson 81.4% IN-8 Open (Ellsworth) 88.2% KS-3 Open (Moore) 97.6% MI-7 Mark Schauer 92.8% NV-3 Dina Titus 88.1% NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter 90.2% OH-1 Steven Driehaus 92.6% PA-8 Patrick Murphy 88.7% PA-11 Paul Kanjorski 88.8% TX-17 Chester Edwards 91.3% WI-8 Steve Kagen 83.6% 13 DEMOCRATS SAFE REPUBLICAN DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PROB AL-2 Bobby Bright 100.7% AR-2 Open (Synder) 102.0% LA-3 Open (Melancon) 113.2% MD-1 Frank Kratovil 107.9% NY-29 Open (Massa) 110.9% OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy 105.5% PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper 104.9% TN-6 Open (Gordon) 110.0% TN-8 Open (Tanner) 104.7% VA-5 Tom Perriello 109.5% 10 DEMOCRATS

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member