It is Now Down to 8 Votes

It has all come down to these 8 members of the House whose votes will determine whether Obama care passes or not. There are some who voted no the first time and are under intense pressure from Speaker Pelosi to change their vote. She can make their life miserable and they know it. She can also cost them their seat in Congress if they vote yes and they know that, too. The others voted yes but for one reason or another are rethinking their position.

Things have been crazy all day. We started out needing three more votes but then out of the blue, Zack Space decided he had better vote no this time to save his seat. Pelosi countered by getting DeFazio flip to yes so we were back to needing three more votes. Then Matheson came in as a no dropping us to needing two. Finally Nye announced he would vote no again so we now need one more. We had better hope that Lincoln Davis votes no once again to make sure this bill crashes and burns. You can e-mail any House member here but you must say you live in his or her district. Here is the scoop on all of them:

1. Brian Baird (WA-3) - He voted no the first time but has decided not to seek re-election. The only workable approach is to urge him to respect the wishes of his constituents. His phone numbers are: 202-225-3536, fax is 202-225-3478.
2. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3) - She represents the Erie, Pennsylvania area and voted yes the first time. She has a problem with the bill without the Stupak language on abortions. The latter is the key to getting her to vote no. Her phone numbers are: 202-225-5406 and fax is 202-225-3103.
3. Lincoln Davis (TN-4) - Remind him that McCain-Palin carried his district by a whopping 29.81% margin so this is no time to play cutesy and hard to pin down. Tell him to do the right thing and just vote no like he did last time. His phone number is 202-225-6831 and fax is 202-226-5172.
4. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) - Explain that you can understand why he voted for the bill the first time since it had the Stupak amendment in it. Since this bill does not have it your conscience will not let you support someone who votes for this bill without it. Add that you know a lot of people who feel the same way and given his meager 3.25% margin last time, you are afraid he will lose if he votes yes. His numbers are 202-225-6511 and the fax is 202-225-0764. The danger is that he could well defect like Carney did.
   
5. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) - She should easily get re-elected so there is no handle there. She voted yes the first time and is likely to do so again. Still you can try to persuade her at 202-225-4146 or fax her at 202-225-7711.
6. Alan Mollohan (WV-1) - He voted yes the first time and it caused a firestorm and put his re-election in doubt when it should have been a slam dunk. Tell him that health care is a deal breaker for you and he needs to vote no. Phones are 202-225-4172 and fax is 202-225-7564. Remind him that McCain-Palin carried his district by 15.26%.
7. Solomon Ortiz (TX-27) - This is a tough one because he voted yes the first time and is likely to do so again. The best approach is to tell him that James Duerr is just waiting for him to vote yes so he can crucify him for it. Phones are 202-225-7742, fax 202-226-1134.
8. John Tanner (TN-8) - He voted no the first time but has decided not to seek re-election. The only workable approach is to urge him to respect the wishes of his constituents. His phone numbers are: 202-225-4714, fax is 202-225-1765.

As you can see Kaptur and Ortiz will likely vote yes. Kanjorski is being pulled by Carney's defection when he was a solid no but if Dahlkemper votes no, he might follow her as all three of them are from Pennsylvania. Baird and Tanner are weak because they are not running for re-election. While we probably will have Davis, we need a couple more to be on the safe side. That means we really could use Dahlkemper and Mollohan. All of this assumes that everyone else breaks the way they have announced or are leaning. However, nothing is ever certain in politics until the roll call vote is closed.

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Suicide Watch List (Part 2)

In our last article, Suicide Watch List 1, we concentrated on those who have openly announced their intention of committing political suicide. We now turn our attention to those who are wondering if they can get away with jumping off that ledge and not get seriously hurt in the fall (pun intended). We will only list those who are virtually certain to die a death of several thousand vote cuts. Once again the phone lines are overloaded so we will give you fax numbers instead. If that does not work, try an e-mail if you can find one. The Clerk of the House website is down from the overload most of the time so use this url instead to get more details about a House member and how to reach them.

1. Gerald Connolly (VA-11) - He has already jumped once which resulted in the GOP targeting him for that vote so he wants to make sure he commits suicide this time? Fax him at 202-225-3071 and point out that Bob McDonnell got 55.25% of the vote for Governor in his district just last November. Does he really think an 11.72% margin is enough to save him when he is down 5 points in a poll already?
2. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8) - Another second time jumper who got targeted by the GOP for her vote. Fax her at 202-225-0378 and remind her that John McCain carried her district by 5.94% in a really bad year for Republicans. Ask her if she really thinks that the students at the University of Arizona will really turn out for her the way they did for Obama last time.
3. Baron Hill (IN-9) - Let's see: He also got targeted by the GOP for his vote last time, he is down 8 points in a poll and John McCain carried his district by 1.76%. Maybe it is not even worth faxing him at 202-226-6866 if he is dumb enough to even thinking of voting for another version of a health care take over again.
4. Jim Himes (CT-4) - This guy just barely managed to defeat Chris Shays by 3.97% when Obama got over 5 times that margin. Well Obama is not on the ballot this time to save him. Fax him at 202-225-9629 and explain the facts of political life to him and that only by reversing his vote from last time can he possibly save himself.

Now we come to the folks who are standing at the window of their House office and considering climbing out on the ledge in hopes they will not fall. Once again we will only list the ones who face almost certain death if they do so.

1. Timothy Bishop (NY-1) - Obama's margin is his district was less than 4% and his vote for the first health care bill caused the GOP to put a big target on his back. Remind him that Artschuler gained 19 points after his first vote and is only 2 points behind. He is having serious doubts about climbing back out on that ledger so fax him at 202-225-3143 and encourage him to keep his seat in Congress.
2. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3) - McCain-Palin carried her district by 27 votes and she only got a 2.47% margin. Being a freshman, she did not know not to vote for health care the first time which resulted in the GOP targeting her for that vote. Fax her at 202-225-3103 and ask her not to make the same mistake this time especially sincs this bill does not have the Stupak amendment.
3. Lincoln Davis (TN -4) - Fax this guy at 202-226-5172 and remind him that McCain-Palin carried his district by a whopping 29.81% margin so this is no time to play cutesy and hard to pin down. Tell him to do the right thing and just vote no like he did last time.
4. Brad Ellsworth (IN-8) - He is running for the Senate and is 6 points behind the man he defeated to win his House seat. He has announced that in his core he knows this bill is best for Hoosiers. Fax 202-225-3284 and beg to differ with him because voting for this bill a second time will just elect Hostettler which it will.
5. Bill Foster (IL-14) - Everyone is telling him he can get away with voting a second time for this bill because he got a 15.5% margin last time. Fax 202-225-0697 and explain that even that high a margin is not safe in a year like this one. Voting yes the first time and getting targeted by the GOP for his efforts should have clued him in.
6. John Hall (NY-19) - Fax this man a dear John letter at 202-255-3289 at explain that his voting for this bill the first time really damaged his relationship with you and doing so a second time will definitely cause a divorce. Add that being targeted by the GOP for his vote should have been a wake-up call because now all those Republicans breathing down his neck are trying to seduce you.
7. Phil Hare (IL-17) - Poor Phil has been hornswoggled into believing that because he was unopposed the first time, he is home free and can get away with voting for this bill a second time. Fax him at 202-225-5396 and remind him that the last time he had Republican opposition his margin was less than 15% and that is just not safe enough in a banner Republican year.
8. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) - Fax 202-225-0764 and explain that you can understand why he voted for the bill the first time since it had the Stupak amendment in it. Since this bill does not have it your conscience will not let you support someone who votes for this bill without it. Add that you know a lot of people who feel the same way and given his meager 3.25% margin last time, he will lose.
9. Ron Klein (FL-22) - Ron is in need of reality check because he is not being told that his 9.34% margin last time just will not cut it this time but he can save himself by changing his vote to no. Call him at 202-225-3026 and explain how worried you are about his not getting re-elected just because of this one controversial vote after being targeted by the GOP from his first vote.
10. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) - Unlike many of her Democrat colleagues, she knew she could not vote for the first bill if she wanted to get re-elected after McCain carried her district with a 1.95% margin. Now Pelosi is trying to push her out onto that ledge so she can fall to her political death. Fax her at 202-226-6299 and tell her that you are behind her 100% and she should stick to her guns.
11. James McGovern (MA-3) - Fax him at 202-225-5759 and explain that you are a member of the Scott Brown brigade. Add that since 57.6% of the voters in his district have already voted against this health care fiasco that you expect him to respect their wishes and vote no like Stephen Lynch is doing because 56.9% of his voters made their distaste for this bill clear by electing Scott Brown.
12. Gerald McNerney (CA-11) - Jerry is beginning to realize that his 10.55% margin is just not good enough this year when the GOP targeted him for voting for this bill the first time in California of all places. Fax 202-225-4060 and tell him that you will forgive him for his first vote if he will vote no this time.
13. Harry Mitchell (AZ-5) - Harry knows he only got elected because J. D. Hayworth wore out his welcome. He knows that McCain carried his district by 4.53% and his 9.58% margin is not enough for a year like this one. Phone Harry at 202-225-2190 and explain that he should respect the wishes of his constituents and vote no.
14. Scott Murphy (NY-20) - Pelosi has conned Scott that he should vote for her bill this time and that he has a safe district because Obama carried his district by a whole 3% margin even though his own margin was a paltry 0.45%. Fax him at 202-225-1168 and ask him what Pelosi would know about a competitive district. Tell him if he votes yes, he is toast.
15. Richard Neal (MA-2) - Fax him at 202-255-8112 and remind him that Scott Brown got 56.9% in his district. Scott got the same margin in district 9 and Representative Lynch got the message and is voting no this time. Remind him that his first vote caused a doctor to be so mad that he is running against him and that you want him to respect the clearly stated wishes of his constituents.
16. Glenn Nye (VA-2) - Glenn was smart enough to vote against this turkey the first time because his 4.94% margin would vanish in a year like this one. Now Pelosi wants him to fall on his sword for the Party. Fax him at 202-225-4218 and tell him that Pelosi does not know beans about what a competitive district is like. He should hang in there or else he will wind up hanging himself.
17. Tom Perriello (VA-5) - Poor Tom is in a world of hurt because he won by a whisker with a 0.23% margin. Not knowing the ropes, he made the mistake of voting for the Pelosi bill the first time. He is tied with a Republican challenger in a poll as a result. McCain-Palin carried his district by 2.31% and Pelosi has conned him into repeating his mistake. Fax 202-225-5681 and tell him he is toast.
18. Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL) - Earl voted for this mess the first time and now Rick Berg is six points ahead of him. Fax him at 202-226-0893 and tell him he can still survive if he votes no this time.
19. Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) - Ciro also got it wrong the first time because he thought a 13.84% margin was good enough to let him do that. Fax him at 202-225-2237 and tell him that Canseco will make a federal case out of his doing so again. He should follow the lead of Chet Edwards and vote no this time.
20. Kurt Schrader (OR-5) - Kurt mistakenly thought that being from Oregon was sufficient to allow him to vote for the Pelosi bill the first time. Now he is having second thoughts after the GOP targeted him and two Republicans are just waiting for him to do it again so they can crucify him. Fax 202-225-5699 and tell him to vote no and save himself.
21. John Salazar (CO-3) - John has convinced himself that he can vote for the Pelosi bill a second time and get away with it even though McCain-Palin carried his district by 2.54% and the GOP targeted him for his vote. Fax 202-226-9669 and tell him he is sadly mistaken if he really thinks he can do this and still win in November.
22. Zack Space (OH-18) - Our boy Zack is trying to make like a conservative on his website and is pussyfooting around his yes vote the first time which got him targeted by the GOP. Fax him at 202-225-3394 and tell him that he should make good on his conservative boasts by voting no this time. Remind him that McCain-Palin carried his district by 7.86% and that Bob Gibbs is waiting to pounce.

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The Slaughter Rule Vote

From The Marston Chronicles

The Republicans offered a motion to bypass the Slaughter Rule that will be voted on this coming Sunday. It would have forced an up and down vote on the Senate Bill complete with its Cornhusker Kickback and Louisiana Purchase. That caused several Democrats to vote for this motion out of loyalty to their party. What is interesting is who voted against this motion and their own Party.

Adler, Arcuri, Boren, Bright, Carney, Childers, Cooper, Costello, Dahlkemper, Davis (AL), Giffords, Herseth Sandlin, Holden, Kosmas, Kratovil, Lipinski, McIntyre, McNerney, Melancon, Michaud, Minnick, Mitchell, Nye, Perriello, Schuler, Stupak, Taylor, and Teague voted against the rule.

The surprise came in who also voted against this motion and joined all of the Republicans present who were not listed as no votes. They are Cooper, Dahlkemper, Hall, Kosmas, Mitchell, Nye, and Perrielli. The two Arizona Democrats who are in tight re-election races, Gifford and Mitchell, suddenly voted with the Republicans when they are supposed to be yes votes. Perhaps they hope to point to this vote after voting for health care as saying they were against the health care bill before they were for it. Better yet they may have decided that voting for health care is political suicide in their districts, which it is.

Cooper is not vulnerable to losing his seat but he is from Tennessee where the Democrat version of health care reform is extremely unpopular. Hall from NY-19 is vulnerable and may be feeling the Republicans running against him breathing down his neck. These two were thought to be yes votes as well. Dahlkemper, Nye and Pierrello are undecideds and are in the list of Democrats who might be persuaded to vote no. All three are vulnerable. If these seven vote with the listed no votes, the health care bill dies.

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The Case of the Missing House Health Care Votes

It seems that everyone and his brother, too, are busy handicapping whether the Democrats can round up the votes in the House of Representatives to finally pass some version of health care. To start with, they have to eventually pass the Senate bill either before they patch it or after using the so-called Slaughter Proposal. To do this they need 216 votes and given that they have lost some of their yes votes, they need to hold virtually all of those members and flip some of the no votes to a yes. Since none of the Republicans will vote for the bill and they are now down to 253 Democrats, they can only afford to lose 37 votes (253 - 216).

One of the handicappers has been The Hill and another has been Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics. They each have their own count of the votes in various categories of how committed they are. What are we to make of this? There were 39 Democrat no votes the first time. Thus the first question is whether any of them can be flipped. Both The Hill and Jay Cost agree there are at least 25 solid no votes out of the original 39 as follows:

John Barrow (GA-12), Dan Boren (OK-2), Bobby Bright (AL-2), Ben Chandler (KY-6), Travis Childers (MS-1), Arthus Davis (AL-7), Lincoln Davis (TN-4), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Parker Griffith (AL-5), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Tim Holden (PA-17), Larry Kissell (NC-8), Frank Kratovil (MD-1), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10), Jim Marshall (GA-8), Mike McIntyre (NC-7), Mike McMahon (NY-13), Charlie Melancon (LA-3), Walt Minnick (ID-1), Collin Peterson (MN-7), Mike Ross (AR-4), Heath Schuler (NC-11), Ike Skelton (MO-4), John Tanner (TN-8) and Gene Taylor (MS-4).

To this group we can add Frederick Boucher (VA-9) since Jay has him as very hard to persuade and The Hill has him as leaning no. That leaves 13 that might be persuaded to vote yes. Eric Massa has resigned so that leaves 12 who might be shaky as follows:

1. John Adler (NJ-3) - Jay has him as persuadable and The Hill has him as leaning no.
   
2. Jason Altmire (PA-4) - Jay has him as very hard to persuade but The Hill has him as undecided.
3. Brian Baird (WA-) - Jay has him as persuadable and The Hill has him as undecided.
4. John Boccieri (OH-16) - Jay has him as persuadable and The Hill has him as undecided.
5. Allen Boyd (FL-2) - Jay has him as very hard to persuade but The Hill has him as undecided.
6. Bart Gordon (TN-6) - Jay has him as persuadable and The Hill has him as undecided.
7. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) - Jay has her as persuadable and The Hill has her as undecided.
8. Betsey Markey (CO-4) - Jay has her in too tight race to vote yes and The Hill has her as undecided.
9. Jim Matheson (UT-2) - Jay has him as in a district that too heavily favored McCain and The Hill has him as a likely no.
10. Scott Murphy (NY-20) - Jay has him as persuadable and The Hill has him as undecided.
11. Glenn Nye (VA-2) - Jay has him in too tight race to vote yes and The Hill has him as undecided.
12. Harry Teague (NM-2) - Jay has him in too tight race to vote yes and The Hill has him as leaning no.

That means the no side has to hold 11 of the 12 left which is not very likely which is why the Democratic leadership is so optimistic. On the other hand they have a lot of yes votes who no longer can be automatically counted on since the election of Scott Brown. Jay has a list of 26 such members while The Hill has 7 members in the no group and another several dozen in the undecided group. Most of those undecideds will still vote yes and are saying they are undecided to see what kind of a deal they can get and to keep their staff from being inundated with phone calls from angry voters. Since The Hill has 2 that are not on Jay's list, let's look at those 28.

1. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
2. Marion Berry (AR-1)
3. Shelley Berkley (NV-1)
4. Tim Bishop (NY-1)
5. Dennis Cardoza (CA-18)
6. Christopher Carney (PA-10)
   
7. Jerry Costello (IL-12)
8. Henry Cuellar (TX-27)
9. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3)
10. Joe Donnelly (IN-2)
11. Steve Driehaus (OH-1)
12. Brad Ellsworth (IN-8)
    
13. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8)
14. Luis Gutierrez (IL-4)
    
15. Baron Hill (IN-9)
16. Steve Kagen (WI-9)
17. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11)
18. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9)
    
19. Dan Lipinski (IL-3)
20. Dan Maffei (NY-25)
21. Alan Mollohan (WV-1)
    
22. James Oberstar (MN-8)
23. Solomon Ortiz (TX-27)
    
24. Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
25. Nick Rahall (WV-3)
    
26. Kurt Schrader (OR-5)
27. Bart Stupak (MI-1)
28. Dina Titus (NV-3)

We now have 40 people whose votes will decide this issue and are the only ones worth looking at. Remember that those opposed to this measure need only 11 of these 40 to defeat this bill. Now it is time to add our own analysis to all of this. We are going to add some more folks who voted yes and should now vote no if they wish to avoid joining that vast list of unemployed Americans next January. The ?? column is where the person stands where Y is yes, U is undecided and 40 means they are in the in play list of 40 people. In the margin column a # means we did not use the most recent election results for one reason or another. The Us column is our own rating in terms of the percentage we think the district is likely to go to the Republicans.

Democrat	Seat	??	Margin	Obama	Us	CQ Pol	Cook	Rothenberg
Tom Perriello	VA-5	U	0.23%	-2.31%	91.5%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
Scott Murphy	NY-20	40	0.45%	3.00%	88.5%	Likely D	Likely D	D favored
Mary Jo Kilroy	OH-15	U	0.76%	7.12%	85.5%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
Kathy Dahlkemper	PA-3	40	2.47%	Tie	79.6%	Leans D	Likely D	Safe D
Mark Schauer	MI-7	U	2.31%	5.23%	78.8%	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
William Owens	NY-23	U	3.11%	5.22%	75.5%	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
John Adler	NJ-3	40	3.31%	5.38%	74.7%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
Michael Arcuri	NY-24	40	3.94%	2.36%	73.4%	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
Baron Hill	IN-9	40	4.52%	-1.76%	72.9%	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D
Alan Grayson	FL-8	Y	4.03%	5.70%	72.0%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
Paul Kanjorski	PA-11	40	3.25%	14.83%	71.8%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
Glenn Nye	VA-2	40	4.94%	1.96%	70.3%	Leans D	D toss-up	D toss-up
Steven Driehaus	OH-1	40	4.94%	10.25%	67.6%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
Jim Himes	CT-4	U	3.97%	20.06%	67.4%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
Carol Shea-Porter	NH-1	U	5.89%	6.21%	66.2%	Leans D	D toss-up	Toss-up
Dina Titus	NV-3	40	5.14%	12.76%	66.1%	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D
Harry Mitchell	AZ-5	U	9.58%	-4.53%	62.2%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
Jason Altmire	PA-4	40	11.72%	-10.45%	61.1%	Likely D	Likely D	D favored
Paul Hodes	NH-2	Y	7.10%	13.09%	61.0%	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
Niki Tsongas	MA-5	Y	#6.21%	19.51%	61.0%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Steve Kagen	WI-8	40	8.10%	8.10%	60.5%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
John Boccieri	OH-16	40	10.73%	-2.61%	59.8%	Likely D	Leans D	D favored
Ron Klein	FL-22	U	9.34%	4.04%	59.7%	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D
Gabrielle Giffords	AZ-8	40	11.90%	-5.94%	59.4%	Likely D	Leans D	D favored
Christopher Carney	PA-10	40	12.66%	-8.43%	59.2%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
Harry Teague	NM-2	40	11.92%	-1.33%	57.8%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
Betsey Markey	CO-4	40	12.39%	-0.88%	57.0%	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
Gary Peters	MI-9	Y	9.45%	12.96%	56.6%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
Earl Pomeroy	ND-AL	40	#15.11	-8.63%	56.2%	Leans D	Leans D	Safe D
Gerald McNerney	CA-11	U	10.55%	9.33%	56.1%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
Ann Kirkpatrick	AZ-1	U	16.45%	-10.17%	54.9%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
Ciro Rodriguez	TX-23	U	13.84%	2.69%	54.1%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
Chellie Pingree	ME-1	Y	9.80%	22.82%	52.7%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Suzanne Kosmas	FL-24	40	16.09%	-1.95%	52.7%	Leans D	Leans D	D toss-up
Gerald Connelly	VA-11	Y	11.72%	14.96%	52.6%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
Dan Maffei	NY-25	40	12.94%	13.12%	51.7%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
John Tierney	MA-6	Y	#12.18%	16.94%	51.4%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Martin Heinrich	NM-1	Y	11.31%	20.43%	51.3%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
Leonard Boswell	IA-3	Y	14.25%	9.37%	51.3%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
Rick Boucher	VA-9	40	#20.37%	-19.10%	50.7%	Safe D	Leans D	D favored
Patrick Murphy	PA-8	Y	15.14%	8.93%	50.3%	Likely D	Leans D	D favored
Timothy Bishop	NY-1	40	15.77%	3.82%	49.8%	Likely D	Leans D	Leans D

As you can see, 21 of the 40 folks in the swing group are not guaranteed of getting re-elected. There are another 11 people in the undecided group as well. That makes a total of 32 people who have every reason to vote no to avoid a chance of committing political suicide. There another 19 people belonging to the 40 group who are not vulnerable to losing the election but have expressed doubts. That is a total of 51 people and the Democrat leadership can only afford to lose 11 of them. Notice that there are another 10 yes votes who should rethink their position. Right off hand, it would appear that having to get a yes vote from 50 of the 60 people who at least should be in play is definitely a tough haul. The odds of that happening are about 17%.

Our analysis would not be complete without pointing out that several members from Massachusetts, all of whom voted yes, should rethink doing so again. Scott Brown carried 7 of the 10 districts and 6 of them by 56% or more of the votes. He ran against this health care proposal and you are going to vote yes in the face of that? All of you have Republican opposition for a change and you know they are going to make a federal case out of your voting yes. If you vote no you can just say that you changed your mind after listening to your constituents. Here is the percent of the votes that Scott Brown got in your district:

MA - District 01	John W. Olver	48.4%
MA - District 02	Richard E. Neal	56.9%
MA - District 03	James P. McGovern	57.6%
MA - District 04	Barney Frank	50.1%
MA - District 05	Niki Tsongas	56.2%
MA - District 06	John F. Tierney	57.4%
MA - District 07	Edward J. Markey	45.8%
MA - District 08	Mike Capuano	35.8%
MA - District 09	Stephen F. Lynch	56.9%
MA - District 10	William D. "Bill" Delahunt	59.3%

For that matter there are a few other yes votes that would be risky to say the least. Gary Peters got less than a 10% margin which is the safety margin in an ordinary election year which this is not. Chellie Pingree had both her Senators vote against the Senate bill and also got less than a 10% margin. She represents half the state of Maine so how does she explain her vote in the face of determined Republican opposition? Paul Hodes is running for the Senate and is behind in the polls already so he is going to vote for this bill so his opposition can crucify him for it? Gerry Connelly apparently thinks an 11.72% margin is safe enough to vote yes but is it really in this year?

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