From The Marston Chronicles
There has been a definite fall off in the Republicans prospects for this year. Our average of the opposition to Obama care had reached as high as 17% opposed and now it is only 11%. Obama's disapproval rating has never gotten above 50% in our average and does not look like it will any time soon. Finally and worst of all, the Republican edge in the generic ballot polling has lost a point in Rasmussen Reports and this figure is backed up by identical results in another likely voter poll from McLaughlin & Associates. As you know from our Handicapping Control of the House article, in midterm elections, the generic ballot results are a predictor of the percentage of the vote percentage of the two major parties. That in turn gives an estimate of the seats each party will wind up with in the election.
The table in our article shows that a drop from 8 to 7 points in the generic ballot translates to a failure to gain 8 more seats than would otherwise be the case. Another factor to consider is what the various polls in the House races are telling us as shown in our A Reality Check article. That showed that we were erroneously favoring the Republicans in 4 out of 5 cases. Between these two factors, it was obviously time for us to adjust our projections once again. The end results of that is that we are now projecting a gain of 56 seats instead of 63 seats for a drop of 7 seats for the Republicans.
Once race in IA-1 has dropped out of being in play. The races that returned to being now more likely to be retained by the Democrats are AR-4, CA-10, IL-14, IL-17, NY-1, NY-19, NC-8 and OR-5. There was one offset where ND-AL moved from a toss-up favoring Democrats to one favoring Republicans. We may be Republican analysts but we are very careful to adjust our ratings in whichever direction is required by the shifting political winds. Still none of these adjustments jeopardize the projected Republican control of the House. A net gain of 56 seats produces a 234 to 201 seat majority for the Republicans and that still is even better than what happened in 1994 by a few seats.
What is causing this drop off? One must remember that very little of the projected big gains for the Republicans is due to voters suddenly favoring the Republicans. It is primarily due to dissatisfaction with the Democrats and there is really no real other choice but the Republicans. Perhaps the change is due to people turning to third parties in a "pox on both your parties" attitude. It could also be that there is nothing going on other than suggestions that the Democrats will still try to jam through their Obama care plan. What turned things dramatically better for the Republicans was the Christmas Eve vote on the Senate version of Obama care.
The Louisiana Purchase and Cornhusker Kickback really turned the voters off. The Democrats still have the opportunity to once again annoy the voters and help out the Republicans by trying to bend the rules and pass Obama care with reconciliation or the so-called Slaughter proposal. If they come to their senses and stop pushing Obama care, we will undoubtedly wind up making more adjustments in their favor.
Bad News for Republicans
A Reality Check
From The Marston Chronicles
In our last report, we explained how we use mathematics to project who will control the House of Representatives and by how much. We also explained that we use mathematics to project which House races are in play and will likely flip to the opposite party. The major problem with this approach is that it is applied across the board to all races and does not account for local conditions that could affect the race. For that reason, we need to conduct a reality check to see if what we project seems to be actually happening. That means we have to look for poll results in various House races. Those are relatively rare but there are always some done. Here is what the polls are telling us:
RACE POLL HCV CQ POL COOK ROTHENBERG MARSTON Alabama 2 D +24 No Toss-up Leans D R toss-up Likely R California 44 R +14 No Likely R Likely R R favored Safe R Colorado 3 D +2 Yes Likely D Leans D D favored Leans D Delaware AL D +10 Open Likely D Leans D D favored Leans D Indiana 9 R +8 Yes Leans D D toss-up Leans D Leans R Maryland 1 R +13 No Toss-up D toss-up R toss-up Likely R Massachusetts 10 R +3 Yes Likely D D toss-up D favored R toss-up Michigan 7 R +10 Yes Toss-up D toss-up Toss-up Likely R Minnesota 6 R +16 No Leans R Likely R R favored Safe R Nevada 3 Tied Yes Leans D D toss-up Leans D Leans R New Hampshire 1 R +10 Yes Leans D D toss-up Toss-up Leans R New Hampshire 2 R +7 Open Toss-up D toss-up Toss-up Leans R New Mexico 1 D +9 Yes Likely D Likely D Safe D R toss-up New Mexico 2 R +2 No Toss-up D toss-up R toss-up R toss-up New Mexico 3 D +6 Yes Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D New York 1 D +2 Yes Likely D Leans D Leans D R toss-up North Carolina 8 D +16 No Leans D Likely D D favored R toss-up North Dakota AL R +6 Yes Leans D Leans D D favored D toss-up Ohio 1 R +17 Yes Toss-up D toss-up R toss-up Leans R Oklahoma 2 D +16 No Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D South Carolina 5 D +7 No Leans D Leans D Leans D Leans D South Dakota AL D +7 No Likely D Likely D D favored Safe D Virginia 5 Tied Yes Toss-up D toss-up R toss-up Likely R
Now we look to see if the letter designating the party which should win the race in the Marston column matches the letter of the party that is ahead in the poll results column. They do match in 16 races but not in the other 7 races. Now we look to see what is going on in those 7 races. In two cases the poll showed a tie which means we will need a newer poll to see which way the political winds are blowing in that race. In four cases we project the race for the Republican when the polls show the Democrat ahead. In one case (ND-AL), the poll shows the Republican ahead when mathematics calls the race for the incumbent Democrat. Those races require further examination.
When we first looked at the results, we thought that the vote on health care might have something to do with these results so we added a column showing that vote. It would seem that a no vote helped in AL-2 and NC-8 to insulate the incumbent Democrat in a red state. Likewise a yes vote in ND-AL put the incumbent Democrat in a red state in trouble. In NY-1, the Democrat has a small lead so perhaps we should move him from R toss-up to D toss-up. In NM-1 we have the Democrat well ahead so we need to move him from R toss-up to leans D.
One other thing that sticks out is the huge lead shown for Bobby Bright in Alabama 2 when we have him as the most vulnerable Democrat in the country. He got 50.23% of the vote in a terrible Republican year while McCain-Palin carried his district with 63% of the votes. In what appears to be a banner year for Republicans, he is ahead by 24 points against his strongest Republican opponent? That does not make any sense. We have never heard of the polling company that conducted the poll but something is clearly off. We do not know what that polling company was smoking but it would appear that it was not legal.
We will make adjustments for a health care vote in cases were this vote made a difference in either direction and fix the two races where local conditions indicate that necessity. We suspect it will not change the final result in the House margin but obviously it will affect which seats make up that margin. We will know more once the changes are made. Now you see how an analyst proceeds. You can evaluate races on a subjective basis race by race and make adjustments as the situation changes like the other analysts do or you can use a mathematical model and adjust your equations or chose the results in a previous year when local conditions warrant it. We prefer the latter approach because it is less subjective.
