Senate Outlook

These tables reflect only the Democrat seats that are up this year. While a few Republican seats are not absolutely certain, we project the Republicans will retain all of their existing seats. At this time, if the toss-ups break 3 - 2 for the Republicans as we show here, there will be a tie in the Senate since the two independents caucus with the Democrats thus giving Vice-President Biden the tie breaking vote. The 5 toss-up seats will decide who controls Congress. Last month Kirk was ahead by 3 points over Giannoulias in the polls but he is down 1 this month so we had to transfer Illinois from Republican toss-up to Democrat toss-up.

STATUS	DEMOCRATS	TOSS-UPS	REPUBLICANS	INDEPENDENTS
NOT UP THIS YEAR	39		23	2
UP THIS YEAR	7	5	24
TOTALS	46	5	47	2

SAFE DEMOCRAT	LIKELY DEMOCRAT	DEMOCRAT TOSS UP
STATE SENATOR PROB Connecticut Open -6.8% Hawaii Daniel Inouye -577.8% Maryland Barbara Mikulski -23.8% New York Chuck Schumer -189.1% Vermont Patrick Leahy -284.4% 5 DEMOCRATS	STATE SENATOR PROB New York Kirsten Gillibrand 35.6% Oregon Ron Wyden 15.5% 2 DEMOCRATS	STATE SENATOR PROB California Barbara Boxer 46.9% Illinois Open 46.3% 2 DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP	LEAN REPUBLICAN	LIKELY REPUBLICAN
STATE SENATOR PROB Nevada Harry Reid 54.3% Washington Patty Murray 52.2% Wisconsin Russ Feingold 54.6% 3 DEMOCRATS	STATE SENATOR PROB Arkansas Blanche Lincoln 65.1% Colorado Michael Bennet 63.5% Delaware Open 65.4% Indiana Open 67.7% Pennsylvania Open 61.7% 5 DEMOCRATS	STATE SENATOR PROB North Dakota Open 85.9% 1 DEMOCRAT