As we have explained elsewhere, there is a pretty decent correlation between generic party polls done with LIKELY VOTER samples only in midterm elections with how many seats each party winds up with in the U. S. House of Representatives. To see which party would control the House if the election were held today based on the average of the likely voter generic ballot polls for today, we have prepared the tables below. The generic ballot number required column is shaded blue when that average favors the Democrats and red when it favors the Republicans.
The other columns are shaded blue where the generic ballot average would leave control of the House in Democrat hands and shaded red when it would give control to the Republicans. We project that the Republicans will lose two of their four vulnerable seats (DE-AL, HI-1, IL-10 and LA-3). Since the Republicans now have 178 seats they need a net gain of 40 seats to gain control, but since they will likely lose two of their own, it would take 42 pick-ups from Democrat held seats to gain control. As you can see from the table, it takes a generic ballot figure of 2.1 in favor of the Republicans to gain that 42nd seat.
We have run the main table down to 10 in favor of the Republicans. While there are another 56 seats in play, we cannot reliably extend the mathematical equations predicting a Republican outcome that strong because there is no data point that far in favor of the Republicans. The previous high was 7 in 1994 for the Republicans in all midterm elections since 1950 whereas the Democrat high was 20 in 1974. The mere fact that the generic ballot would favor the Republicans by a wider margin than in 1994 speaks volumes about the current political climate.
Next we have a table showing the likely voter sample polls for the generic ballot as of today. As you can see, the average today is 9.0 in favor of the Republicans which would give them a net gain of 77 seats or control by a 255 - 180 margin. The seats requiring a number higher than today's average are not shaded.
The other columns are shaded blue where the generic ballot average would leave control of the House in Democrat hands and shaded red when it would give control to the Republicans. We project that the Republicans will lose two of their four vulnerable seats (DE-AL, HI-1, IL-10 and LA-3). Since the Republicans now have 178 seats they need a net gain of 40 seats to gain control, but since they will likely lose two of their own, it would take 42 pick-ups from Democrat held seats to gain control. As you can see from the table, it takes a generic ballot figure of 2.1 in favor of the Republicans to gain that 42nd seat.
We have run the main table down to 10 in favor of the Republicans. While there are another 56 seats in play, we cannot reliably extend the mathematical equations predicting a Republican outcome that strong because there is no data point that far in favor of the Republicans. The previous high was 7 in 1994 for the Republicans in all midterm elections since 1950 whereas the Democrat high was 20 in 1974. The mere fact that the generic ballot would favor the Republicans by a wider margin than in 1994 speaks volumes about the current political climate.
Next we have a table showing the likely voter sample polls for the generic ballot as of today. As you can see, the average today is 9.0 in favor of the Republicans which would give them a net gain of 77 seats or control by a 255 - 180 margin. The seats requiring a number higher than today's average are not shaded.
| Poll | Date | Sample | Dems | Reps | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MC Average | 7/9 - 7/25 | -- | 38.0 | 47.0 | Republicans +9.0 |
| Bloomberg | 7/9 - 7/12 | 875 LV | 40 | 48 | Republicans +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/19- 7/25 | 3500 LV | 36 | 46 | Republicans +10 |
| State | District | Incumbent Democrat | 2008 Margin | McCain Margin | Rank | Generic Ballot # Required |
| Virginia | 5 | Tom Perriello | 0.23% | 2.31% | 1 | 9.1 |
| Louisiana | 3 | Open | #0.50% | 23.96% | 2 | 8.9 |
| New York | 20 | Scott Murphy | 0.45% | -3.00% | 3 | 8.6 |
| Tennessee | 6 | Open | #1.21% | 25.28% | 4 | 8.3 |
| Alabama | 2 | Bobby Bright | 0.62% | 27.37% | 5 | 8.1 |
| Ohio | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | 0.76% | -7.12% | 6 | 7.8 |
| Idaho | 1 | Walt Minnick | 1.21% | 25.94% | 7 | 7.5 |
| Maryland | 1 | Frank M. Kratovil, Jr. | 0.79% | 18.45% | 8 | 7.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 3 | Kathy Dahlkemper | 2.47% | 27 Votes | 9 | 7.0 |
| Michigan | 7 | Mark Schauer | 2.31% | -5.23% | 10 | 6.8 |
| Tennessee | 8 | Open | #1.28% | 13.28% | 11 | 6.6 |
| New York | 29 | Open | 1.93% | 2.22% | 12 | 6.3 |
| New York | 23 | William L. Owens | 3.11% | -5.22% | 13 | 6.1 |
| Indiana | 9 | Baron Hill | #4.52% | 1.76% | 14 | 5.9 |
| Florida | 8 | Alan Grayson | 4.03% | -5.70% | 15 | 5.6 |
| Arkansas | 2 | Open | #4.70% | 9.91% | 16 | 5.4 |
| Ohio | 1 | Steven L. Driehaus | 4.94% | -10.25% | 17 | 5.2 |
| New Hampshire | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | 5.89% | -6.21% | 18 | 4.9 |
| Nevada | 3 | Dina Titus | 5.14% | -12.76% | 19 | 4.7 |
| Kansas | 3 | Open | #4.78% | -2.58% | 20 | 4.5 |
| Texas | 17 | T. Chester Edwards | 7.48% | 35.17% | 21 | 4.2 |
| New Jersey | 3 | John Adler | 3.31% | -5.38% | 22 | 4.0 |
| Indiana | 8 | Open | #9.44% | 3.90% | 23 | 3.7 |
| Arizona | 5 | Harry Mitchell | 9.58% | 4.53% | 24 | 3.5 |
| New York | 24 | Michael Arcuri | 3.94% | -2.36% | 25 | 3.3 |
| Mississippi | 1 | Travis W. Childers | 10.59% | 23.54% | 26 | 3.1 |
| Wisconsin | 8 | Steve Kagen | 8.10% | -8.10% | 27 | 2.7 |
| Georgia | 12 | John Barrow | #3.62% | -8.84% | 28 | 2.5 |
| Ohio | 16 | John A. Boccieri | 10.73% | 2.61% | 29 | 2.2 |
| Pennsylvania | 11 | Paul E. Kanjorski | 3.25% | -14.83% | 30 | 2.0 |
| New Hampshire | 2 | Open | #5.37% | -13.09% | 31 | 1.7 |
| Arizona | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | 11.90% | 5.94% | 32 | 1.4 |
| Pennsylvania | 10 | Christopher P. Carney | 12.66% | 8.43% | 33 | 1.1 |
| Virginia | 2 | Glenn Nye | 4.94% | -1.96% | 34 | 0.8 |
| New Mexico | 2 | Harry Teague | 11.92% | 1.33% | 35 | 0.5 |
| Colorado | 4 | Betsy Markey | 12.39% | 0.88% | 36 | 0.2 |
| North Dakota | 1 | Earl R. Pomeroy, III | #15.11% | 8.63% | 37 | 0.2 |
| California | 11 | Gerald McNerney | 10.55% | -9.33% | 38 | 0.5 |
| Connecticut | 4 | Jim Himes | 3.97% | -20.06% | 39 | 0.9 |
| Illinois | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | #11.32% | -8.18% | 40 | 1.3 |
| South Dakota | 1 | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin | #7.45% | 8.41% | 41 | 1.7 |
| Arizona | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | 16.45% | 10.17% | 42 | 2.1 |
| Florida | 22 | Ron Klein | 9.34% | -4.04% | 43 | 2.5 |
| Minnesota | 1 | Tim Walz | #13.98% | -4.37% | 44 | 2.9 |
| Michigan | 1 | Open | #14.88% | -1.82% | 45 | 3.3 |
| Washington | 3 | Open | #9.32% | -6.72% | 46 | 3.7 |
| Massachusetts | 10 | Open | #12.58% | -11.27% | 47 | 4.1 |
| Virginia | 11 | Gerald E. Connolly | 11.64% | -14.96% | 48 | 4.4 |
| Florida | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | 16.09% | 1.95% | 49 | 4.8 |
| Pennsylvania | 12 | Mark S. Critz | 7.55% | 0.31% | 50 | 5.1 |
| Pennsylvania | 7 | Open | #12.76% | -12.64% | 51 | 5.3 |
| Wisconsin | 7 | Open | #8.65% | -13.39% | 52 | 5.6 |
| New York | 25 | Dan Maffei | 12.94% | -13.12% | 53 | 5.8 |
| Iowa | 3 | Leonard L. Boswell | 14.25% | -9.37% | 54 | 6.1 |
| Arkansas | 1 | Open | #20.42% | 20.28% | 55 | 6.3 |
| Georgia | 8 | Jim Marshall | #11.43% | 13.36% | 56 | 6.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 8 | Patrick J. Murphy | 15.14% | -8.93% | 57 | 6.6 |
| Virginia | 9 | Frederick C. Boucher | #17.57% | 19.10% | 58 | 6.8 |
| New York | 1 | Timothy H. Bishop | 16.77% | -3.82% | 59 | 7.0 |
| Illinois | 17 | Phil Hare | #14.35% | -14.24% | 60 | 7.1 |
| Illinois | 8 | Melissa Bean | #6.89% | -12.88% | 61 | 7.3 |
| New York | 19 | John Hall | 17.35% | -2.28% | 62 | 7.4 |
| Illinois | 14 | Bill Foster | 15.50% | -11.06% | 63 | 7.6 |
| Pennsylvania | 4 | Jason Altmire | 11.72% | 10.45% | 64 | 7.7 |
| Massachusetts | 5 | Niki Tsongas | #6.21% | -19.51% | 65 | 7.8 |
| Oregon | 5 | Kurt Schrader | 15.92% | -10.62% | 66 | 7.9 |
| Indiana | 2 | Joe Donnelly | #7.95% | -9.38% | 67 | 8.0 |
| Ohio | 18 | Zack Space | 19.75% | 7.86% | 68 | 8.1 |
| Ohio | 6 | Charles A. Wilson, Jr. | #18.95% | 2.67% | 69 | 8.2 |
| Texas | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | 13.84% | -2.69% | 70 | 8.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 13 | Allyson Y. Schwartz | #14.46% | -18.05% | 71 | 8.4 |
| Massachusetts | 3 | James P. McGovern | #15.42% | -19.35% | 72 | 8.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 17 | T. Timothy Holden | #20.16% | 3.45% | 73 | 8.6 |
| West Virginia | 1 | Open | #19.35% | 15.26% | 74 | 8.7 |
| Iowa | 1 | Bruce L. Braley | #11.85% | -17.52% | 75 | 8.8 |
| Hawaii | 1 | Open | #10.26% | -42.29% | 76 | 8.9 |
| Washington | 1 | Jay Inslee | #14.33% | -26.51% | 77 | 9.0 |
| Connecticut | 5 | Chris Murphy | #12.93% | -13.94% | 78 | 9.1 |
| South Carolina | 5 | John M. Spratt, Jr. | #13.84% | 7.24% | 79 | 9.1 |
| Massachusetts | 6 | John F. Tierney | #12.18% | -16.94% | 80 | 9.2 |
| New Mexico | 1 | Martin Heinrich | 11.31% | -20.43% | 81 | 9.3 |
| Colorado | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | #11.92% | -19.07% | 82 | 9.3 |
| North Carolina | 8 | Larry Kissell | 10.76% | -5.88% | 83 | 9.4 |
| California | 18 | Dennis Cardoza | #7.90% | -20.27% | 84 | 9.5 |
| New York | 2 | Steve J. Israel | #18.02% | -13.04% | 85 | 9.5 |
| Michigan | 9 | Gary Peters | 9.45% | -12.96% | 86 | 9.6 |
| Florida | 2 | Allen Boyd | #18.97% | 9.69% | 87 | 9.7 |
| New York | 4 | Carolyn McCarthy | #13.01% | -16.64% | 88 | 9.7 |
| Wisconsin | 3 | Ron Kind | #12.95% | -16.96% | 89 | 9.8 |
| Maine | 2 | Michael H. Michaud | #18.56% | -11.26% | 90 | 9.9 |
| North Carolina | 13 | Brad Miller | #17.58% | -18.32% | 91 | 9.9 |
| Kentucky | 3 | John Yarmuth | 18.73% | -12.30% | 92 | 10.0 |
Very interesting post. Have you put together this type of analysis in the past? It would be helpful to know the correlation between your predictions and what actually played out.
I agree -- very interesting post and chart. Hope the Republican trend continues into November to get some balance in our government.