Who's Winning the House?

As we have explained elsewhere, there is a pretty decent correlation between generic party polls done with LIKELY VOTER samples only in midterm elections with how many seats each party winds up with in the U. S. House of Representatives. To see which party would control the House if the election were held today based on the average of the likely voter generic ballot polls for today, we have prepared the tables below. The generic ballot number required column is shaded blue when that average favors the Democrats and red when it favors the Republicans.

The other columns are shaded blue where the generic ballot average would leave control of the House in Democrat hands and shaded red when it would give control to the Republicans. We project that the Republicans will lose two of their four vulnerable seats (DE-AL, HI-1, IL-10 and LA-3). Since the Republicans now have 178 seats they need a net gain of 40 seats to gain control, but since they will likely lose two of their own, it would take 42 pick-ups from Democrat held seats to gain control. As you can see from the table, it takes a generic ballot figure of 2.1 in favor of the Republicans to gain that 42nd seat.

We have run the main table down to 10 in favor of the Republicans. While there are another 56 seats in play, we cannot reliably extend the mathematical equations predicting a Republican outcome that strong because there is no data point that far in favor of the Republicans. The previous high was 7
in 1994 for the Republicans in all midterm elections since 1950 whereas the Democrat high was 20 in 1974. The mere fact that the generic ballot would favor the Republicans by a wider margin than in 1994 speaks volumes about the current political climate.

Next we have a table showing the likely voter sample polls for the generic ballot as of today. As you can see, the average today is 9.0 in favor of the Republicans which would give them a net gain of 77 seats or control by a 255 - 180 margin. The seats requiring a number higher than today's average are not shaded.

Poll Date Sample Dems Reps Spread
MC Average 7/9 - 7/25 -- 38.0 47.0 Republicans +9.0
Bloomberg 7/9 - 7/12 875 LV 40 48 Republicans +8
Rasmussen Reports 7/19- 7/25 3500 LV 36 46 Republicans +10
Likely Voter Congressional Generic Ballot Average
State District Incumbent Democrat 2008 Margin McCain Margin Rank Generic Ballot # Required
Virginia 5 Tom Perriello 0.23% 2.31% 1 9.1
Louisiana 3
Open #0.50%
23.96% 2 8.9
New York
20 Scott Murphy 0.45% -3.00% 3 8.6
Tennessee 6 Open #1.21% 25.28% 4 8.3
Alabama 2 Bobby Bright 0.62% 27.37% 5 8.1
Ohio 15 Mary Jo Kilroy 0.76% -7.12% 6 7.8
Idaho 1 Walt Minnick 1.21% 25.94% 7 7.5
Maryland 1 Frank M. Kratovil, Jr. 0.79% 18.45% 8 7.3
Pennsylvania 3 Kathy Dahlkemper 2.47% 27 Votes
9 7.0
Michigan 7
Mark Schauer 2.31% -5.23% 10 6.8
Tennessee 8 Open #1.28% 13.28% 11 6.6
New York 29 Open 1.93% 2.22% 12 6.3
New York 23 William L. Owens 3.11% -5.22% 13 6.1
Indiana 9 Baron Hill #4.52% 1.76% 14 5.9
Florida 8 Alan Grayson 4.03% -5.70% 15 5.6
Arkansas 2 Open #4.70% 9.91% 16 5.4
Ohio 1 Steven L. Driehaus 4.94% -10.25% 17 5.2
New Hampshire 1 Carol Shea-Porter 5.89% -6.21% 18 4.9
Nevada 3 Dina Titus 5.14% -12.76% 19 4.7
Kansas 3 Open #4.78% -2.58% 20 4.5
Texas 17 T. Chester Edwards 7.48% 35.17% 21 4.2
New Jersey 3 John Adler 3.31% -5.38% 22 4.0
Indiana 8 Open #9.44% 3.90% 23 3.7
Arizona 5
Harry Mitchell 9.58% 4.53% 24 3.5
New York 24 Michael Arcuri 3.94% -2.36% 25 3.3
Mississippi 1 Travis W. Childers 10.59% 23.54% 26 3.1
Wisconsin 8 Steve Kagen 8.10% -8.10% 27 2.7
Georgia 12 John Barrow #3.62% -8.84% 28 2.5
Ohio 16 John A. Boccieri 10.73% 2.61% 29 2.2
Pennsylvania 11 Paul E. Kanjorski 3.25% -14.83% 30 2.0
New Hampshire 2 Open #5.37% -13.09% 31 1.7
Arizona 8 Gabrielle Giffords 11.90% 5.94% 32 1.4
Pennsylvania 10 Christopher P. Carney 12.66% 8.43% 33 1.1
Virginia 2 Glenn Nye 4.94% -1.96% 34 0.8
New Mexico 2 Harry Teague 11.92% 1.33% 35 0.5
Colorado 4 Betsy Markey 12.39% 0.88% 36 0.2
North Dakota 1 Earl R. Pomeroy, III #15.11% 8.63% 37 0.2
California 11 Gerald McNerney 10.55% -9.33% 38 0.5
Connecticut 4 Jim Himes 3.97% -20.06% 39 0.9
Illinois 11 Debbie Halvorson #11.32% -8.18% 40 1.3
South Dakota 1 Stephanie Herseth Sandlin #7.45% 8.41% 41 1.7
Arizona 1 Ann Kirkpatrick 16.45% 10.17% 42 2.1
Florida 22 Ron Klein 9.34% -4.04% 43 2.5
Minnesota 1 Tim Walz #13.98% -4.37% 44 2.9
Michigan 1 Open #14.88% -1.82% 45 3.3
Washington 3 Open #9.32% -6.72% 46 3.7
Massachusetts 10 Open #12.58% -11.27% 47 4.1
Virginia 11 Gerald E. Connolly 11.64% -14.96% 48 4.4
Florida 24 Suzanne Kosmas 16.09% 1.95% 49 4.8
Pennsylvania 12 Mark S. Critz 7.55% 0.31% 50 5.1
Pennsylvania 7 Open #12.76% -12.64% 51 5.3
Wisconsin 7 Open #8.65% -13.39% 52 5.6
New York 25 Dan Maffei 12.94% -13.12% 53 5.8
Iowa 3 Leonard L. Boswell 14.25% -9.37% 54 6.1
Arkansas 1 Open #20.42% 20.28% 55 6.3
Georgia 8 Jim Marshall #11.43% 13.36% 56 6.5
Pennsylvania 8 Patrick J. Murphy 15.14% -8.93% 57 6.6
Virginia 9 Frederick C. Boucher #17.57% 19.10% 58 6.8
New York 1 Timothy H. Bishop 16.77% -3.82% 59 7.0
Illinois 17 Phil Hare #14.35% -14.24% 60 7.1
Illinois 8 Melissa Bean #6.89% -12.88% 61 7.3
New York 19 John Hall 17.35% -2.28% 62 7.4
Illinois 14
Bill Foster 15.50%
-11.06% 63 7.6
Pennsylvania 4 Jason Altmire 11.72% 10.45% 64 7.7
Massachusetts 5 Niki Tsongas #6.21% -19.51% 65 7.8
Oregon 5 Kurt Schrader 15.92% -10.62% 66 7.9
Indiana 2 Joe Donnelly #7.95% -9.38% 67 8.0
Ohio 18 Zack Space 19.75% 7.86% 68 8.1
Ohio 6 Charles A. Wilson, Jr. #18.95% 2.67% 69 8.2
Texas 23 Ciro Rodriguez 13.84% -2.69% 70 8.3
Pennsylvania 13 Allyson Y. Schwartz #14.46% -18.05% 71 8.4
Massachusetts 3 James P. McGovern #15.42% -19.35% 72 8.5
Pennsylvania 17 T. Timothy Holden #20.16% 3.45% 73 8.6
West Virginia 1 Open #19.35% 15.26% 74 8.7
Iowa 1 Bruce L. Braley #11.85% -17.52% 75 8.8
Hawaii 1 Open #10.26% -42.29% 76 8.9
Washington 1 Jay Inslee #14.33% -26.51% 77 9.0
Connecticut 5 Chris Murphy #12.93% -13.94% 78 9.1
South Carolina 5 John M. Spratt, Jr. #13.84% 7.24% 79 9.1
Massachusetts 6 John F. Tierney #12.18% -16.94% 80 9.2
New Mexico 1 Martin Heinrich 11.31% -20.43% 81 9.3
Colorado 7 Ed Perlmutter #11.92% -19.07% 82 9.3
North Carolina 8 Larry Kissell 10.76% -5.88% 83 9.4
California 18 Dennis Cardoza #7.90% -20.27% 84 9.5
New York 2 Steve J. Israel #18.02% -13.04% 85 9.5
Michigan 9 Gary Peters 9.45% -12.96% 86 9.6
Florida 2 Allen Boyd #18.97% 9.69% 87 9.7
New York 4 Carolyn McCarthy #13.01% -16.64% 88 9.7
Wisconsin 3 Ron Kind #12.95% -16.96% 89 9.8
Maine 2 Michael H. Michaud #18.56% -11.26% 90 9.9
North Carolina 13 Brad Miller #17.58% -18.32% 91 9.9
Kentucky 3 John Yarmuth 18.73% -12.30% 92 10.0

Click on the Generic Ballot Number to See Details of the District

Comments :

2 comments to “Who's Winning the House?”
Science Exploiter said...
on 

Very interesting post. Have you put together this type of analysis in the past? It would be helpful to know the correlation between your predictions and what actually played out.

Spence said...
on 

I agree -- very interesting post and chart. Hope the Republican trend continues into November to get some balance in our government.