Obama Popularity in Free Fall

From The Marston Chronicles


It is hard to draw any conclusion from the polls other than that President Obama's approval rating is in free fall.

2010 Generic Congressional Vote

Poll	Date	Dems	Reps	Spread
RCP Average	6/4 - 7/5	39.7	35.0	Democrats +4.7
Rasmussen Reports	6/29 - 7/5	38	41	Republicans +3
Quinnipiac	6/23 - 6/29	42	34	Democrats +8
Diageo/Hotline	6/4 - 6/7	39	30	Democrats +9

Source: Real Clear Politics

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	6/23 - 7/8	--	56.5	38.5	+18.0
Gallup	7/6 - 7/8	1547 A	57	36	+21
Rasmussen Reports	7/6 - 7/8	1500 LV	51	48	+3
Quinnipiac	6/23-6/29	3063 RV	57	33	+24
CNN/Opinion Research	6/26-6/28	1026 A	61	37	+24

Source: Real Clear Politics

It is hard to draw any conclusion from these polls other than that President Obama's approval rating is in free fall. The approval spread among Likely Voters has dropped 23 points to an all time low of 3% since the end of January. The RCP average has dropped 26.7 points to 18% in the same time period. It would appear that the President's determination to try to do so much so fast is starting to cut into his popularity and is starting to show up in the generic congressional results. The Diageo/Hotline poll has dropped from a 24% spread for the Democrats at the end of January to 9% now. Since politicians avidly watch these polls, some Democratic Congressman may well begin jumping off the bandwagon.

Perhaps you have noticed that there are wide disparities in these poll results. How can the Presidential approval spread range from as low as 3% to as high as 24%? Do not make the mistake of thinking that this is deliberate on the part of the polling companies. The difference is caused by who is being polled. An "A" after the sample size means that the pollster is asking anyone who is 18 or over who answers the phone the various questions. These least interested people give President Obama an approval rating spread in the low twenties. The "RV" after the sample size tells you that the respondent has to admit that he or she is registered to vote. These people are at least interested enough to register, but now the spread is also in the mid-twenties. Finally we have the "LV" group which is the likely voters which is done by Rasmussen. Notice that the spread is now approaching zero.

Those most interested and most likely to vote have the least support for President Obama. Notice also that only Rasmussen shows the Republicans ahead in the Generic Congressional poll because that is also a likely voter sample. The other factor is the sample size because larger samples have smaller margin of error in the sample selection. So in terms of what the actual people voting are likely to do, look at the "LV" samples.