Republicans Stay Home so Obama Wins

An analysis of the voter turnout figures, the final polls and the exit polling shows that the Republican turnout was way below the norm allowing Obama-Biden to win the election.

As usual, the media has missed the huge story of this election. Their story is that Obama registered huge masses of new supporters and got them to the polls. At first, that was what I thought, but that is not the key factor. I was expecting the highest percentage turnout in 100 years amounting to 130,000,000 voters, but instead as of 5:00 PM EDT, 121,146,964 people voted for Obama or McCain. In 2004, 121,069,054 people voted for Bush or Kerry. Hence in a hotly contested election in which a fortune was spent on the race, there was no big surge in voter turnout. The population is bigger and the number of registered voters is larger than in 2004, yet just about the same number of people voted. What are we to make of this? We know that a higher than normal percentage of minorities and under 30 youths turned out pushing up the Democratic votes. We know that about 15% of Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton voted for McCain-Palin (the PUMA voters). So how are we to explain the results? The conclusion is inescapable. The Republicans stayed home in droves. Obama did not win the election, the Republicans gave it to him by not getting out and voting.

For those of you who have been following my previous articles, you know I was predicting a McCain-Palin landslide in the electoral votes based on the P.U.M.A. Factor. Since these disgruntled Hillary supporters would normally vote Democrat, that should have been enough to tip the balance in the key states. I even allowed for a huge turnout because of Obama's vaunted ACORN express in my calculations so as not to underestimate the number of PUMA voters required. I have been doing this for 45 years and have never been wrong before. It goes without saying that when the results were widely different from what I predicted, I wanted to know how I could be so wrong. At first I thought it was because the PUMA voters did not turn out and vote for McCain-Palin but they clearly did. Then I thought that it was because Obama got millions of new voters to the polls and simply swamped the PUMA factor.

It was only when the turnout figures became available that I had to discard that theory. If the usual number of people voted yet more Democrats than normal turned out and there a sizable number of PUMA voters voting Republican, how could McCain-Palin have lost? When the results were staring me in the face, I was totally shocked. The smaller turnout meant that even fewer PUMA voters were required in the key states than I had calculated so McCain-Palin should have done even better than I predicted. Naturally my predictions were based on a normal Republican turnout. Who would have ever thought that the Republicans would fail to turn out in this election? While I am still busy trying to wipe the egg of my face, I am also extremely curious as to why so many Republicans stayed home. I imagine that I am not alone in wondering that at this point.

Did all the publicity about a Obama landslide and polls showing that Obama had it made in the shade cause the Republicans to stay home? Were too many Republicans so unhappy with President Bush that they felt that there was no point in voting? Were the Republicans that unhappy with McCain and Palin as the candidates? Were too many Republicans affected by white guilt about slavery and figured electing Obama would prove that America is not a racist country anymore? Yet the tracking polls only showed a 6% defection to Obama from Republicans. Whatever their reason was, it does not change the results.

Comments :

5 comments to “Republicans Stay Home so Obama Wins”
Deb said...
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Can you tell if it shows that the Republican stayed home more in the areas where Acorn was active - ie the large cities vs rural. As I have looked at the precinct maps for Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida it is obvious that it was the vote in very few precincts that gave the states to Obama and it would be an interesting study to see Republicans just happened to stay home more in these area vs the rural areas. I have such an uncomfortable feeling about Acorn and voter fraud....

LoozianaJay said...
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How come I'm not surprised by any of this. All the more reason for new faces and new direction for the GOP.

Let's get started.

Alien Patriot said...
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I hope that those Republicans who stayed home, got what they want.

I guess it is one thing to say: "I don't like neither candidate." but another to live 4-8 years in possibly the most liberal administration ever.

I guess they will realize that soon.

TAP

Richard Santomauro said...
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Democrats are running around in a drunken stupor right now. In about a year from now the hangover will kick in. In the meantime over the next four years we will hunker down and reduce spending both in the private sector as well as government. Obama will be unable to raise taxes and implement his plans, but if he does he will only further drive the economy into a recession. The question is who will Hillary face off against in 2012?

Angela said...
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I'm registered Republican, but have often voted for Libertarian candidates. As hugely disappointed as I was to see McCain as the nominee, I felt too much was at stake to "waste" my vote this year. It's a shame more of us didn't see it the same way.

Jindahl/Thompson 2012!