Republicans 267, Democrats 168 in House

One always hesitates to get way out in front of the crowd or in this case the other political analysts. So far none of the other analysts have been willing to go above a 57 seat gain for the Republicans or a 235 to 200 House in favor of the Republicans. So where do we get off projecting an 89 net seat gain for them?

Unlike other analysts, we have been using the results of the likely voter generic congressional ballots as developed by Gallup over the last 60 years for midterm elections. When you have 15 data points like this, you can apply a regression analysis to develop some mathematical equations that can allow you to predict how many seats the Republicans will wind up taking from the Democrats.

Never before in the last 60 years have the Republicans been able to get a spread of more than 7 points in their favor and that was in 1994. Right now the Real Clear Politics average of the generic ballot is 7.3 points in their favor and the Republicans picked up a net 51 seats when it was 7. This already says that the Republicans should do better than a 51 seat gain.

Remember that Gallup is the pollster that has data going back 60 years so they have all that experience in developing a screen to pick out the likely voters from a sample of registered voters. This year Gallup is offering two types of likely voter screens depending upon how many voters actually do turn out to vote. The spread in favor of the Republicans is a whopping 9 to 14 points.

If a 7 point spread got the Republicans a net gain of 51 seats, what would 9 points get them let alone 14? A simple proportional analysis says that 9 is 1.29 times greater than 7 so 51 X 1.57 = 65 seats. On the other hand, 14 is 2 times greater than 7 so 51 X 2 = 102 seats. While this kind of progression is way too simple and way outside any existing data points, it does tell you that our projection of an 89 net seat pickup for the Republicans does not seem so outrageous.

So why do we pick 89 seats instead of 65 or 102? We use results from previous equivalent elections as a starting point and then add in an adjustment for the Obamacare votes and poll results. Actually we project that the Republicans will pick up 91 seats from the Democrats but will lose 3 of their own (DE-AL, IL-10 and LA-3). On the other hand they will gain back their now vacant seat (IN-3) so 178 + 91 - 3 + 1 = 267. This gain means the final generic ballot spread will be 12.5 points in favor of the Republicans.

We go further and try to project which seats will be among the 91 seats the Democrats will lose at Who's Winning the House? As you can see from that table, the 91st seat is Carolyn McCarthy in NY-4. An October poll from McLaughlin and Associates has her up 1 point over the Republican Becker, 46 to 45. That 1 point can be made up in the 8 days remaining before the election. The 92nd seat is Ben Chandler in KY-6 and he is ahead by 4 points in an October poll from Mason-Dixon, 48 to 44. While it is possible for the Republicans to pick up this seat since Chandler is polling under 50%, it is not an odds on bet.

Likewise, Tierney in MA-6 is up 6 and Braley is up 11 in IA-1. On the other hand, in the 95th seat, there is a tie in an August poll from Action Solutions, but that is an old poll so who knows where that race is today. At best, it could make up for one of the ones listed in the first 91 that the Republicans end up losing. The point is that the pickings are pretty slim below that 91st seat so that is why we stopped there.

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Past the Tipping Point

Usually it is only after a tipping point has already passed that one can look back and see that it occurred. We suspected that such a political tipping point was occurring during July but it has taken until now for us to be certain. Everyone who knows anything about politics knows that the political party of the President usually loses many seats in Congress in a midterm election. Given how many Democrats that were elected in 2006 and 2008 from traditionally Republican leaning areas, there was no doubt that the Democrats were going to get caught in the tidal undercurrent. However, that did not necessarily mean they were going to lose control of either house of Congress. That would be a political tsunami of major proportions.

That tsunami wave is building to never before seen heights as a result of the July tipping point. Right now our average of LIKELY VOTER generic congressional ballot polls stand at an incredible 11.5 points in favor of the Republicans. By comparison, it stood only at 7 points in favor of the Republicans in 1994. Barring a political miracle, the Democrats will lose control of the House and their chances of hanging on to the Senate diminish with every passing day. Nothing but passing a tipping point could cause this kind of a reversal of political fortunes.

So what event or series of events set off our passing a political tipping point? There was a series of three events that triggered the tipping point over the course of two weeks from the 6th of July to the 19th of July and they all had to do with racial relations. What evidence do we have that these events caused the tipping point? The first event occurred on July 6th when J. Christan Adams testified before the U. S. Commission on Civil Rights regarding the Justice Department's handling of the New Black Panther Party and intimidation of white voters at a Philadelphia polling place in 2008. His testimony that the DOJ was now refusing to handle any case involving civil rights of a white person sent off shock waves. On that day, the Real Clear Politics average of the generic congressional ballot went in favor of the Republicans and accelerated rapidly to 6 points in six weeks.

A week later, the NAACP adopted a resolution condemning the so-called tea party for harboring racist elements and demanding that such elements be repudiated. Another week brought us the Shirley Sherrod fiasco. All of these taken together left the impression that the Obama administration and the black community really had it in for "whitey". On July 21st, the backlash reached the President and his Real Clear Politics average of his job approval went negative and has stayed there, reaching as high as -6.2% on August 16th. Blacks only make up 1 out every 8 Americans so any advantages they have over the white population that constitutes 74.3% of the population requires the cooperation of the white populace.

Almost every white person knows that the black population got a really raw deal in the early history of this country that did not start to be rectified until the Civil War. It took the civil rights uproar of the 50's and 60's for us to finally get it right in our treatment of Black Americans. There is no question that a large proportion of the white population feel sorry for this past unjust treatment and have tried to make amends. That is why the white population in large measure have not rebelled against the forced busing of white children to end segregation or affirmative action programs. The white population even went so far as to elect a black President before electing a female one in the interest of putting this inglorious past to rest.

To suddenly find that instead of all their attempts to make things right improving racial relations, they have gotten much worse instead comes as a real shock. The white population extended their hand to the black population but got a bloody nose instead. It is obvious now that a sizable number of whites have decided that enough is enough. They are not feeling that way because they are racists but because they have decided they now have become the victims of reverse discrimination. They have decided that way too many of the black population have become racists instead. The events of July has confirmed that opinion. This is a classic example of overreach on the part of the black leadership encouraging race baiting and overlooking the corruption of several members of the Black Caucus. The race card has been played so much it has lost all meaning.

So why is the Democrat Party paying the price for this reversal of good will? It is because 90% of the black adult population is Democrat and that party has always claimed that they are the ones looking out for the best interests of the blacks. The fact that a Republican president freed the slaves and Republican support for the civil rights laws of the 50's and 60's over the vehement objections of the southern Democrats got them passed does not matter. To make matters worse for the Democrats, they misread what they thought was a mandate from the 2008 elections.

The voters wanted to prove America is not a racist country anymore but in doing so they were not voting to have socialism jammed down their collective throats. President Obama and the Democrat leadership support of the Ground Zero mosque has added more fuel to the blazing inferno. The white voters did not bargain for any of this or the "let them eat cake" attitude on the part of the Democrat leadership. The constant partying on the taxpayers' dime by President and Mrs. Obama is merely feeding the fire. All that firestorm will be quenched by the building political tsunami cresting on November 2nd.

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Generic Ballot Average at New High for Republicans

Likely Voter Congressional Generic Ballot Average

Poll	Date	Sample	Dems	Reps	Spread
MC Average	7/9 - 8/1	--	39.5	49.0	Republicans +9.5
Democracy Corps (D)	7/26 - 7/29	1000 LV	41	52	Republicans +11
Rasmussen Reports	7/26- 8/1	3500 LV	38	46	Republicans +8

This translates to an unbelievable net gain of 83 seats for the Republicans for a 261 to 174 margin. Since the current margin is 257 to 178 in favor of the Democrats, this would not only return control to the Republicans but flip the House to give the Republicans a larger margin than the Democrats have now. Even the RCP average is at 6 in favor of the Republicans and they include registered voter polls. Our average of such polls shows 6.71 because we include a Democracy Corps poll of likely voters that they are ignoring. A 6 point average would gain the Republicans a net gain of 51 seats on the 6.71 average would give them a 55 net gain.

We will have to see if this holds up over the next few weeks. For the time being we are going with a likely voter generic average of 8.0 and a 65 seat net gain. We were at 64 seats but are moving IN-2 from Democrat toss-up to Republican toss-up today. See www.marstonchronicles.info for the details.

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Who's Winning the House?

As we have explained elsewhere, there is a pretty decent correlation between generic party polls done with LIKELY VOTER samples only in midterm elections with how many seats each party winds up with in the U. S. House of Representatives. To see which party would control the House if the election were held today based on the average of the likely voter generic ballot polls for today, we have prepared the tables below. The generic ballot number required column is shaded blue when that average favors the Democrats and red when it favors the Republicans.

The other columns are shaded blue where the generic ballot average would leave control of the House in Democrat hands and shaded red when it would give control to the Republicans. We project that the Republicans will lose two of their four vulnerable seats (DE-AL, HI-1, IL-10 and LA-3). Since the Republicans now have 178 seats they need a net gain of 40 seats to gain control, but since they will likely lose two of their own, it would take 42 pick-ups from Democrat held seats to gain control. As you can see from the table, it takes a generic ballot figure of 2.1 in favor of the Republicans to gain that 42nd seat.

We have run the main table down to 10 in favor of the Republicans. While there are another 56 seats in play, we cannot reliably extend the mathematical equations predicting a Republican outcome that strong because there is no data point that far in favor of the Republicans. The previous high was 7 in 1994 for the Republicans in all midterm elections since 1950 whereas the Democrat high was 20 in 1974. The mere fact that the generic ballot would favor the Republicans by a wider margin than in 1994 speaks volumes about the current political climate.

Next we have a table showing the likely voter sample polls for the generic ballot as of today. As you can see, the average today is 9.0 in favor of the Republicans which would give them a net gain of 77 seats or control by a 255 - 180 margin. The seats requiring a number higher than today's average are not shaded.

Likely Voter Congressional Generic Ballot Average

Poll	Date	Sample	Dems	Reps	Spread
MC Average	7/9 - 7/25	--	38.0	47.0	Republicans +9.0
Bloomberg	7/9 - 7/12	875 LV	40	48	Republicans +8
Rasmussen Reports	7/19- 7/25	3500 LV	36	46	Republicans +10

Click on the Generic Ballot Number to See Details of the District

State	District	Incumbent Democrat	2008 Margin	McCain Margin	Rank	Generic Ballot # Required
Virginia	5	Tom Perriello	0.23%	2.31%	1	9.1
Louisiana	3	Open	#0.50%	23.96%	2	8.9
New York	20	Scott Murphy	0.45%	-3.00%	3	8.6
Tennessee	6	Open	#1.21%	25.28%	4	8.3
Alabama	2	Bobby Bright	0.62%	27.37%	5	8.1
Ohio	15	Mary Jo Kilroy	0.76%	-7.12%	6	7.8
Idaho	1	Walt Minnick	1.21%	25.94%	7	7.5
Maryland	1	Frank M. Kratovil, Jr.	0.79%	18.45%	8	7.3
Pennsylvania	3	Kathy Dahlkemper	2.47%	27 Votes	9	7.0
Michigan	7	Mark Schauer	2.31%	-5.23%	10	6.8
Tennessee	8	Open	#1.28%	13.28%	11	6.6
New York	29	Open	1.93%	2.22%	12	6.3
New York	23	William L. Owens	3.11%	-5.22%	13	6.1
Indiana	9	Baron Hill	#4.52%	1.76%	14	5.9
Florida	8	Alan Grayson	4.03%	-5.70%	15	5.6
Arkansas	2	Open	#4.70%	9.91%	16	5.4
Ohio	1	Steven L. Driehaus	4.94%	-10.25%	17	5.2
New Hampshire	1	Carol Shea-Porter	5.89%	-6.21%	18	4.9
Nevada	3	Dina Titus	5.14%	-12.76%	19	4.7
Kansas	3	Open	#4.78%	-2.58%	20	4.5
Texas	17	T. Chester Edwards	7.48%	35.17%	21	4.2
New Jersey	3	John Adler	3.31%	-5.38%	22	4.0
Indiana	8	Open	#9.44%	3.90%	23	3.7
Arizona	5	Harry Mitchell	9.58%	4.53%	24	3.5
New York	24	Michael Arcuri	3.94%	-2.36%	25	3.3
Mississippi	1	Travis W. Childers	10.59%	23.54%	26	3.1
Wisconsin	8	Steve Kagen	8.10%	-8.10%	27	2.7
Georgia	12	John Barrow	#3.62%	-8.84%	28	2.5
Ohio	16	John A. Boccieri	10.73%	2.61%	29	2.2
Pennsylvania	11	Paul E. Kanjorski	3.25%	-14.83%	30	2.0
New Hampshire	2	Open	#5.37%	-13.09%	31	1.7
Arizona	8	Gabrielle Giffords	11.90%	5.94%	32	1.4
Pennsylvania	10	Christopher P. Carney	12.66%	8.43%	33	1.1
Virginia	2	Glenn Nye	4.94%	-1.96%	34	0.8
New Mexico	2	Harry Teague	11.92%	1.33%	35	0.5
Colorado	4	Betsy Markey	12.39%	0.88%	36	0.2
North Dakota	1	Earl R. Pomeroy, III	#15.11%	8.63%	37	0.2
California	11	Gerald McNerney	10.55%	-9.33%	38	0.5
Connecticut	4	Jim Himes	3.97%	-20.06%	39	0.9
Illinois	11	Debbie Halvorson	#11.32%	-8.18%	40	1.3
South Dakota	1	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	#7.45%	8.41%	41	1.7
Arizona	1	Ann Kirkpatrick	16.45%	10.17%	42	2.1
Florida	22	Ron Klein	9.34%	-4.04%	43	2.5
Minnesota	1	Tim Walz	#13.98%	-4.37%	44	2.9
Michigan	1	Open	#14.88%	-1.82%	45	3.3
Washington	3	Open	#9.32%	-6.72%	46	3.7
Massachusetts	10	Open	#12.58%	-11.27%	47	4.1
Virginia	11	Gerald E. Connolly	11.64%	-14.96%	48	4.4
Florida	24	Suzanne Kosmas	16.09%	1.95%	49	4.8
Pennsylvania	12	Mark S. Critz	7.55%	0.31%	50	5.1
Pennsylvania	7	Open	#12.76%	-12.64%	51	5.3
Wisconsin	7	Open	#8.65%	-13.39%	52	5.6
New York	25	Dan Maffei	12.94%	-13.12%	53	5.8
Iowa	3	Leonard L. Boswell	14.25%	-9.37%	54	6.1
Arkansas	1	Open	#20.42%	20.28%	55	6.3
Georgia	8	Jim Marshall	#11.43%	13.36%	56	6.5
Pennsylvania	8	Patrick J. Murphy	15.14%	-8.93%	57	6.6
Virginia	9	Frederick C. Boucher	#17.57%	19.10%	58	6.8
New York	1	Timothy H. Bishop	16.77%	-3.82%	59	7.0
Illinois	17	Phil Hare	#14.35%	-14.24%	60	7.1
Illinois	8	Melissa Bean	#6.89%	-12.88%	61	7.3
New York	19	John Hall	17.35%	-2.28%	62	7.4
Illinois	14	Bill Foster	15.50%	-11.06%	63	7.6
Pennsylvania	4	Jason Altmire	11.72%	10.45%	64	7.7
Massachusetts	5	Niki Tsongas	#6.21%	-19.51%	65	7.8
Oregon	5	Kurt Schrader	15.92%	-10.62%	66	7.9
Indiana	2	Joe Donnelly	#7.95%	-9.38%	67	8.0
Ohio	18	Zack Space	19.75%	7.86%	68	8.1
Ohio	6	Charles A. Wilson, Jr.	#18.95%	2.67%	69	8.2
Texas	23	Ciro Rodriguez	13.84%	-2.69%	70	8.3
Pennsylvania	13	Allyson Y. Schwartz	#14.46%	-18.05%	71	8.4
Massachusetts	3	James P. McGovern	#15.42%	-19.35%	72	8.5
Pennsylvania	17	T. Timothy Holden	#20.16%	3.45%	73	8.6
West Virginia	1	Open	#19.35%	15.26%	74	8.7
Iowa	1	Bruce L. Braley	#11.85%	-17.52%	75	8.8
Hawaii	1	Open	#10.26%	-42.29%	76	8.9
Washington	1	Jay Inslee	#14.33%	-26.51%	77	9.0
Connecticut	5	Chris Murphy	#12.93%	-13.94%	78	9.1
South Carolina	5	John M. Spratt, Jr.	#13.84%	7.24%	79	9.1
Massachusetts	6	John F. Tierney	#12.18%	-16.94%	80	9.2
New Mexico	1	Martin Heinrich	11.31%	-20.43%	81	9.3
Colorado	7	Ed Perlmutter	#11.92%	-19.07%	82	9.3
North Carolina	8	Larry Kissell	10.76%	-5.88%	83	9.4
California	18	Dennis Cardoza	#7.90%	-20.27%	84	9.5
New York	2	Steve J. Israel	#18.02%	-13.04%	85	9.5
Michigan	9	Gary Peters	9.45%	-12.96%	86	9.6
Florida	2	Allen Boyd	#18.97%	9.69%	87	9.7
New York	4	Carolyn McCarthy	#13.01%	-16.64%	88	9.7
Wisconsin	3	Ron Kind	#12.95%	-16.96%	89	9.8
Maine	2	Michael H. Michaud	#18.56%	-11.26%	90	9.9
North Carolina	13	Brad Miller	#17.58%	-18.32%	91	9.9
Kentucky	3	John Yarmuth	18.73%	-12.30%	92	10.0

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