gemimail,
From The Marston Chronicles
There is no question that the election of Scott Brown sent shock waves through the political establishment as we predicted that it would. While that was true for the nation as a whole, it was even more true for Massachusetts itself. After all, Massachusetts has 10 congresspeople and they are all Democrats and they all voted for the Pelosi health care bill. Since Scott Brown ran as being opposed to the various Democrat health care bills and won, what does that say about what will happen to those 10 Democrats in November? They all are not even listed as being in play by Rothenberg and both Cook and CQ Politics list only MA-10 as being in play and even then list it as likely Democrat. Would you want to be the ranch on this because we sure wouldn't?
Of course, none of these some analysts saw any chance of Scott Brown winning either before the first poll was taken either. We saw the possibilities on December 27th and the first poll was taken on January 5th. Only one analyst, Michael Barone, has said that the Democrats are in terrible shape and that "the numbers tell me that Democrats would fare worse than they have in every election since 1946." We should mention that the Republicans picked up 55 house seats in 1946. Once again we have to say that we that we think that those other analysts are wrong and that we agree with Michael Barone. That means that some of the congressional seats in Massachusetts are in play besides MA-10 and are much more vulnerable than just likely Democrat. To prove our point, let's see how well Scott Brown did in each congressional district.
It does not take a rocket scientist to see that we can agree that districts 1, 7 and 8 can retain their safe Democrat rating because Scott Brown lost those districts. He did carry Barney Frank's district by a whisker but barring a poll showing otherwise we can keep that one safe Democrat. We can also eliminate districts 1 and 9 because the incumbent had a wide margin in his worst recent year. But that still leaves 5 districts in play. Obviously Rep. Tsongas is in a world of hurt because of her narrow margin and Scott Brown getting 56.2% of the votes in her district and must be rated leaning Republican. Only Rep. Neal has a big enough margin to remain likely Democrat. The other races must be rated as toss-ups with a slight benefit to the Republicans.
What makes us so sure of our ratings? It just so happens a poll was taken in MA-10 on January 30th and 31st by McLaughlin & Associates showing Rep. Delahunt behind Joseph Malone, one of the Republican candidates, 34 to 31%. This poll was taken before the Amy Bishop scandal broke so one can just imagine what it would be now. It seems that Rep. Delahunt was a district attorney back when she shot her brother and arranged to get her released and somehow the case files got "lost". This was before she murdered the three professors in Alabama. I think a new poll would make this a likely Republican after that mess but it will take a new poll before we can move it out of the toss-up group.
The bottom line is that other analysts just have not made enough adjustments to their projections to account for the election of Scott Brown in the bluest state in the country. He carries 7 of the 10 congressional districts and we are only going to put one of them in play and even then rate it as likely Democrat? We just do not see this as realistic. We should add that we have added IL-17 to the toss-up group. We missed this one because Rep. Hare was unopposed in 2008. However, he only got 57.17% of the vote in 2006 and that is just not good enough in a year like this one is shaping up to be for the Republicans so this race is rated a toss-up. We now project that the Republicans will pick up 64 Democrat seats while losing 2 for a net gain of 62. This would give them control of the house by a 242 to 193 margin.
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gemimail,
The mainstream media has not made much of a secret about their feelings in favor of Obama. A solid win (by five or more points) by Brown would be one of the biggest political upsets in history. It would require that the news media try to explain how this could have happened. Will they make excuses for Obama and the Democrats or will they be honest and admit that the arrogant attitude on the part of the Democratic leadership had a lot to do with it? If they do what they have been doing, they will blame just Coakley and her campaign. While Coakley has indeed run an abysmal campaign, that alone cannot explain such an upset.
Massachusetts is the most Democratic state in the union if you do not count the District of Columbia as a state. Massachusetts has given the last three Democratic candidates for President an average of a 26.09% margin which is higher than any other state. It has not elected a Republican Senator since 1972. For a Republican senatorial candidate to ever carry this state would be a remarkable feat but to win the seat held by Teddy Kennedy for almost 50 years just boggles the mind. Now there is no reasonable way that the media can ignore these facts. This is their last chance to show that they have any integrity left and to retain some semblance of credibility. If they try to spin the significance of this political earthquake as anything but an utter repudiation of the Obama/Reid/Pelosi agenda, they will be toast.
Right now they are hoping to get a pass by having Coakley somehow manage to squeak out a narrow victory. Three polls taken on Sunday are unanimous in showing Brown ahead. Two of them have him up by an identical 9.6% and the Public Policy Poll has him up by 5 points. The chance of their getting a pass is mighty slim. Even Obama said that a Brown win will seriously negatively impact his agenda which is why he went to Massachusetts to try and get Coakley over the finish line. Obama is the one who by his own words told the voters of Massachusetts that he needs them to elect Coakley to save his agenda. When Brown wins, how else can one honestly explain the results as anything but a repudiation of that agenda?
Based on their past performance, we suspect the mainstream media will not be pointing this fact out. In a way, that does not really matter since any Democrat elected federal politician will definitely draw the conclusion that if a Senate seat in Massachusetts is not safe, then no seat is safe any more. Since this election was in large part a referendum on the health care bill and the way it was jammed through Congress against united Republican opposition, health care will be a very hot potato for Democrats. More Democrats will either decide to retire or decide to vote against any compromise bill that is drafted even if they can bring it to a vote before Brown is seated. Any attempt to do that will have a tremendous fallout in November.
The bottom line is that this is the mainstream media's last chance to get a political story right. If they fail to do this, then a lot of liberal newspapers will be filing for bankruptcy in the near future. In television, the major networks will have a remarkable ratings drop off while Fox gains dramatically. So it comes down to ideology versus survival. Somehow we do not believe the mainstream media will see this as a matter of survival and will therefore take the ideological road. Oh well, this will merely hasten what will eventually happen anyway. With the internet readily available, who needs the mainstream media any more anyway?
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gemimail,
The Massachusetts Senatorial special election is now the talk of every town. Three weeks ago, it was not the talk of any town. What has made the difference? None of this sudden interest would have been possible if it was not for Scott Brown himself. He is the one who took on a "hopeless" candidacy and made it all possible. Without his tireless efforts that resulted in convincing the Massachusetts voters that he was a breath of fresh air in the stale politics of Massachusetts and that he cared about them, none of this would have been possible. Since Massachusetts has not elected a Republican since 1976 and that was a person who was the rarest of rarities, a black Republican, what chance did Scott Brown have? The conventional wisdom said he had no chance but that did not deter him for giving it his best shot.
Because of that intense effort on his part, we became convinced he had a reasonable chance of making the impossible possible and wrote an article called How to Stop Obama Care Now on December 27th. In it we pointed out that once Obama care passed, it could never be repealed and why. We begged people to support Scott Brown to provide the 41st vote to stop Obama care in it's tracks. We spread this article to everyone we know on the Conservative blogosphere and waited for a response. What we got was nothing so two days later we wrote another article, The Deafening Silence, and did the same thing. On the third day, the boyz at hillbuzz.org got on board and so did Hot Air. From there, it spread like wildfire to the other Conservative websites.
What this does is point out what a powerful tool the internet is to conservative activists. One of us can spot a chink in the liberal Democrat armor, publicize it on the blogosphere and we then can jump on it and energize the conservative base. We can all think of the role that the above websites plus Gateway Pundit, Red State, Wake Up America, American Thinker, etc have played by calling attention to something the rest of us overlooked. Yes, it is true that without the Conservative blogosphere pushing this race and getting millions of dollars donated to Scott Brown, he would not be winning. On the other hand, if Scott Brown himself had not made this race competitive by his own effort, the Conservative base would not have had a golden opportunity to jump on.
As we pointed out in another piece, Why Scott Brown for Senator, Scott is a campaign manager's dream come true. He just has it all and he has used his ability to connect with the people to great advantage. His resume is fantastic and his family is a magnificent bonus. Scott Brown is the picture perfect candidate for the Republicans and the way he and his team have handled the campaign has been equally perfect. Of course, as we pointed out in The Democrat Party Is Our Best Friend, the Democrats have gone out of their way help us by alienating just about everyone not in their base. On top of that, Martha Coakley has to be the worst candidate and has the worst campaign staff since McCain and that is saying a lot. Every day she has opened her mouth and inserted her foot. If the Democrats think that sending Obama to Boston on Sunday will save this dog of a campaign, they are whistling by the graveyard.
All of this is why a poll conducted for Pajamas Media by Cross Target Polling shows Brown up by 15 points. While we are not ready to buy that big a margin, we do predict that Scott will win by at least five points. What we have here is the "Perfect Storm" race where it all came together for the Republicans. They had the perfect candidate against the worst candidate at a time of great unease in the voting populace about all of the wheeling and dealing in Washington DC. A hard working candidate caught the imagination and support of the Conservative base with the help of the Conservative blogosphere and the rest as they say is history. Massachusetts elects a Republican to replace Ted Kennedy? Who would have believed it three weeks ago?
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gemimail,
Surely we jest? No, we are serious because right off hand we cannot think of much more they could do to guarantee that they will be drummed out of office. What is more, they will stay out of power until the Republicans get fat and happy and screw up again as they most surely will. At every turn, the Democrats stick it to the American people and do not even have any shame about doing so. They even brag about using our money to buy votes for their outrageous bills. Never in my life have I seen any elected officials adopt such a "my way or the highway" attitude. Apparently they think that the American people will continue to put up with their incredible chutzpah. In this they err.
What has always annoyed me about the Republican Party is its propensity to shoot itself in the foot. It has no instinct for the jugular. Republicans just feel that it is beneath them to get down in the trenches and play hardball. They feel they are the good guys and it is beneath them to adopt the slash and burn tactics of the Democrats. Their idea of how to beat Democrats is to offer the voting public a Democrat-lite agenda. They do not try or even promise to cut back on the ever expanding voracious federal government or even to balance the budget. All they do is promise to cut back on how much it grows. If the public has no problem with the federal government running their lives, why would they vote for a wimpy statist agenda when they can have the real thing?
We have seen the Republican Party blow an election that there is no way they should have lost. How about the New York 23 congressional race when they spent a million dollars backing a candidate who was further to the left than the Democrat candidate? How about the wimpy McCain campaign? He decided that it was not polite to bring up the sordid past of a fellow Senator. Thus he did not constantly hammer Obama about his associations with racists, domestic terrorists and Chicago crooks. Those were the only subjects worth talking about along with the sorriest excuse for proven ability to be able to run anything but a wheelbarrow in many decades.
Thus we are stunned to suddenly see the Democrats adopt the Republicans stupid shoot themselves in the foot strategy. In fact, they have doubled down and are blowing off both feet. In the midst of a recession that is rapidly turning into a full blown depression, their only real concern is jamming a very unpopular health care system down our throats. They are so determined to do this that they will sacrifice a lot of seats in Congress and adopt any means no matter how unscrupulous and dishonest they are to reach that end. They have done everything they accused the Republicans of doing multiplied many times over. Then they turn around and tell us obvious lies about what they are doing. This behavior is a gift to the Republican Party that keeps on giving.
The latest example of this kind of stupidity is the Massachusetts special election for the Senate. Massachusetts is the most Democrat state in the Union (excluding the District of Columbia) so there is no way that a Republican should comes even close in this election. Since the Democrat machine knew this, they and their candidate just coasted along sure of their victory. Their candidate actually went on vacation during a campaign that was only six weeks long. Yet Scott Brown has closed the gap from thirty-one points behind to just nine. Since this is a special election with a low turnout, you need to look at the certain voters where Brown was only behind by two points. He has the momentum and has a minimum of a 50-50 chance to win.
Not satisfied with letting Scott Brown steal a march on them, they made it clear that everyone knew that the Kennedy family had decided that Ted Kennedy's seat should go to the Democrat candidate and had the Democrat legislature and governor change the law about federal office vacancies a second time. Meanwhile, back in Washington, the Democratic leadership is doing everything they can to piss off the voting public. It was only when the Rasmussen poll came out that they suddenly realized that this race was not a foregone conclusion and they needed to get busy. Public Policy Polling took a poll this weekend and reports that it is Brown 48 and Coakley 47.
Sensing this was the case, the Massachusetts Democrats finally got so worried that they decided to adopt a plan B just in case Scott Brown won which was clearly becoming a very distinct possibility. Since they cannot pass their health care bill if Brown wins, the place holding Democrat Senator, Paul Kirk, announced that he would continue to provide the 60th vote even if Scott Brown won. See Scott Brown swearing-in would be stalled to pass health-care reform for the details. Not even the bumbling Republicans would be so stupid as to announce such an end run. Some idiot in the Massachusetts Secretary of State's office actually opined that it would take a month before the results of the election could be certified and by that time Obama care would be a done deal.
The voters of Massachusetts are obviously willing to put up with a lot but this one really takes the cake. Everything in this election depends upon how well the independents turn out. They are running three to one for Brown. If this "let them eat cake" attitude on the part of the Massachusetts Democrat machine does not get those independents to turn out and take that machine down a whole bunch of notches, then nothing else ever will.
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gemimail,
Many of us have been beating the drum for Scott Brown because he would be the 41st Republican vote in the U. S. Senate. With only 59 votes left to the Democrats, they could not stop a filibuster against the Obama health care bill when it comes back to the Senate to be voted on. While that is reason enough to vote for him, that overlooks what else this country gets with him in the Senate. Folks, what you get here is what has to be the epitome of the ideal political candidate. Never in 45 years in politics have we seen a candidate like this one. He just has it all. Let's start with his accomplishments so far.
State Senator Scott Brown represents the Norfolk, Bristol, and Middlesex District, in the Massachusetts Senate. Senator Brown was elected to the Massachusetts Senate in a special election on March 2, 2004, was re-elected on November 2, 2004, won re-election unopposed on November 7, 2006, and was re-elected on November 4, 2008. This is his third term in the Senate. Previously, Senator Brown served three terms in the Massachusetts House of Representatives from the 9th Norfolk District. Prior to his election to the House in 1998, Brown served as a Wrentham Selectman for three years and before that, as Town Assessor for three years.
Senator Brown is a graduate of Wakefield High School, Tufts University, and Boston College Law School. He is a practicing attorney, and a 29 -year member of the Massachusetts National Guard, where he currently holds the rank of Lt. Colonel in the Judge Advocate General’s Corps. Brown was awarded the Army Commendation Medal for meritorious service in homeland security after the attacks of September 11, 2001.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) recognized Senator Brown as a “Guardian of Small Business” for his work in creating and maintaining jobs in Massachusetts. Senator Brown has also received an "A" rating from the Associated Industries of Massachusetts, both for his efforts in promoting job growth and retaining companies within the commonwealth. Senator Brown received the 2004 “Public Servant of the Year” Award from the United Chamber of Commerce, for his leadership in reforming the state’s sex offender laws and protecting the rights of victims.
Senator Brown is one of the State’s most outspoken advocates for victims of sexual abuse, and is a tireless supporter of veterans’ causes. As a member of the Hidden Wounds of War Commission, Brown traveled the Commonwealth to research how State government can do a more thorough job of preventing veterans from falling through the cracks and not receiving the mental health services that they may require.
Many politicians would kill for a political resume like that one. On top of that, he has a real way with words and comes across as earnest and honest. That is a rare commodity in a politician especial in state like Massachusetts where political corruption is pretty much the norm. Then there is the no small matter of his looks, always a good thing in politics. He was only 22 when Cosmopolitan magazine voted him America's sexiest man which led him into a modeling career.
Finally, one of his biggest assets is his family. His wife, Gail, is a well known television newsperson in Boston and is a former model herself. He has two very attractive daughters. His older daughter, Ayla, is a champion basketball player who was voted the outstanding female basketball player in Massachusetts. Her point total (2,358) is the sixth highest in the history of the state even with the males included. She is in her senior year at Boston College on a full athletic scholarship. She is a forward on the Boston College Eagles where she is called "Downtown Ayla Brown" for her expertise in three pointers.
If that is not enough, she is a recording artist whose debut album, Forward, was released in March of 2006 and reached 34 on Billboard's AC chart. She is well known in Massachusetts for her achievements. You can find her singing the national anthem with the Boston Pops Orchestra on July 4th at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U5SGSr6kXY. She reached the final eight in female contestants on American Idol. Her sister, Arianna, is attending Syracuse College. Where do you find political families like this one with real achievements?
The Brown Family
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gemimail,
Yes, folks the Democrat express train is still rolling down the tracks and still headed right towards you and your family sitting there stalled on the railroad tracks. In 45 years in politics, we have never seen anything to match this blatant disregard for due process and what the public wants. Apparently the Democrats really think they are bullet proof. The AP is reporting this story today: Dems intend to bypass GOP on health compromise. Talk about a "we won, so screw you attitude." They are going to pass Obama care whether we like it or not and do so behind closed doors and then say, "Don't read it, just pass it."
You hopefully will pardon us if we say that it is time for these "our way or the highway" Democrats to be brought up short. In fact, it is way past the time to do that. It just so happens that Congress is not planning to meet again until January 19th. How very interesting because that just happens to be the date of the special election for the next U. S. Senator in Massachusetts. We believe that the election of the Republican candidate, Scott Brown, will indeed serve notice that we are mad as hell and are not going to stand for their sheer arrogance any more.
Rasmussen polling is conducting a poll tonight on this race and we expect them to report a squeaker race. There is talk at Weekly Standard that a private poll says that Coakley is ahead of Brown by 11 points. We are willing to bet that it was a poll of registered voters at best, if not all adults. Rasmussen's forte is polling likely voters as opposed to all adults or even registered voters. That automatically tilts things towards Republicans because they do in fact turn out better than Democrats. Whatever he comes up with for results in Massachusetts, you can take it to the bank. We will bet you that he will report a lot better than an 11 point margin.
Update: The Rasmussen poll shows that the margin is 9 points but among certain voters, it is just two points.
We have been hoping he would not do this poll because it is likely to scare the Democrats big time. On the other hand, maybe the the Rasmussen poll will finally convince the Republican National Committee that they have a real chance and will finally pour a ton of money into this race if they were not planning to do that all along. There has been a lot of chatter about the Libertarian candidate, Joe Kennedy, taking votes away from Brown as Libertarians usually do. We believe that a candidate whose last name is Kennedy will take a big chunk of votes away from the Democrat candidate in Massachusetts. That is why we still think Brown can win this thing.
The only way to derail the Democrat Obama care express train is to elect Scott Brown. Once Obama care is passed, it will never be repealed. All we have to do is do whatever it takes to get Scott Brown elected in the special election in Massachusetts. While only voters in Massachusetts can do that, we can help them do what is needed by doing whatever it takes to get Scott Brown elected no matter wherever we live. Please go to www.brownforussenator.com and donate your time and money to help our country avoid insolvency. This is our last and only real chance of stopping Obama care.
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gemimail,
While the ever mounting huge debt that the federal government is piling up is the most serious long term problem, the job market is the most serious problem facing us now. The economy has shed 7,156,000 jobs in 2008 and 2009. On top of that, another 125,000 people enter the job market each month. So the economy needs to create another 125,000 jobs each month just to keep unemployment steady. What can we expect from the economy in job creation once it recovers? The average number of jobs created in 2004-2006 was just under 187,000 a month. Since 125,000 are needed just to keep up, that only leaves 62,000 jobs a month to start making a dent in those 7,156,000 jobs lost. At that rate, it would take over nine years just to get back where we started at the beginning of 2008.
While the preliminary figures for November 2009 show only 11,000 jobs lost, that is still a far cry from the 125,000 jobs created per month just to keep up. Not only was the income from all those jobs lost not available to circulate through the economy, but the taxes on those wages and the sales taxes on what those wages bought was lost as well. As a result, most governments at all levels are running deeply in the red. In particular, the social security and Medicare taxes on those wages were lost so that payments out exceeded the taxes in for the first time in history.
This of course exacerbates the the long term debt problem. How are we ever going to pay off the $12,157,000,000,000 debt at the federal level alone? You can go to www.usdebtclock.org and watch in real time how fast the debt is piling up. It also shows official unemployment at 15,412,125 and actual unemployment is estimated at 26,470,024. You will be truly shocked. That same web site shows that each person is on the hook for $39,437 apiece to pay off this debt. Since the per capita income in the United States is $27,466, each of us would have to work 17.23 months and give every dime to the federal government to pay off the debt. Since we have to have food, clothing and shelter, how long would it really take?
The point of all of these dry statistics is that the economic outlook for 2010 and years to come totally sucks. So what do we do about this dire situation? Just plain common sense tells you that the federal government should not only not commit to any new expenditures and but start cutting the existing ones as well. That would seem to indicate that a new system of national health care would be a non-starter. So why then is it even being considered let alone being jammed down our throats against the majority's will? Apparently all 60 Democrat Senators are so busy with their social engineering that economic facts are totally lost on them.
Most of us are not very happy with the Republican Party either since it has not taken any serious steps to control spending when it was in power. Still since every last Republican Senator voted against the health care bill, that says that they at least have some economic sense. What choice do we have but to vote in more Republicans? The problem with that is that it will take a year for us to do that and in the meantime, we are going down the tubes as a country. What we need to do to cut back on this fiscal insanity is to replace one of those 60 Democrat Senators with a Republican right away and not a year from now.
It just so happens that we have a chance to do that on January 19th. All we have to do is do whatever it takes to get Scott Brown elected in the special election in Massachusetts. While only voters in Massachusetts can do that, we can help them do what is needed by doing whatever it takes to get Scott Brown elected no matter wherever we live. Please go to www.brownforussenator.com and donate your time and money to help our country avoid insolvency. After looking at the figures above how can we justify not helping Scott?
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gemimail,
For a while it appeared that our voices were crying in the wilderness, but no longer. The blogosphere has finally awakened to the fact that the Obama health care takeover may well ride on the results of the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat. It will be held on January 19th in Massachusetts. As we all know, the Democrats now have 60 votes in the Senate and that means they can override any attempt at halting the health care monstrosity by using a filibuster. They can only do this when all 60 Democrat Senators vote to stop debate and act on a bill. If the Republican candidate in that special election, Scott Brown, wins then health care can be talked to death.
The Democrat candidate, Martha Coakley is on record as being in favor of the health care bill and Scott Brown is adamantly opposed. Thus it does not matter whether you live in Massachusetts or not. What happens in Massachusetts will determine if Obama care finally passes or not. Most people who are political activists know that Massachusetts is just about the bluest state in the country so what chance would a conservative Republican have there? The answer would ordinarily be not much chance at all but a special election is a whole different kettle of fish. Republicans always turnout better than Democrats but that difference grows ever so much larger in a special election let alone one being held in the freezing cold weather in January in Massachusetts.
Now that the blogosphere is piling on about this election, more money and support will be coming Scott's way. Just because everyone has been assuming that Martha Coakley has a lock on this election, including her, she has just been coasting on to what should be a certain victory. That is a huge mistake. Scott Brown is one of five Republicans senators in the Massachusetts state senate. He has Mitt Romney's endorsement. He is an extremely good looking and articulate candidate. He and his family are a breath of fresh air in the corrupt politics of Massachusetts. His daughter, Ayla Brown, was a contestant on American Idol where she made it to the final eight. His wife and daughters are all very attractive and obviously talented.
The mainstream media have all been silent on this critical election and that is a good thing. There is not even a current poll available to give us a feel of how well Scott is doing. Several articles in the blogosphere and the Boston Herald have wondered why the Republican National Committee has not been pouring money into this race since the passage of health care is riding on it. It is true that the RNC has made some really dumb decisions in recent years but ignoring this critical race would be a totally incompetent thing to do. That makes me strongly suspect that they have been waiting until the first of the year to step in big time. That way fundraising for the fourth quarter will not show much money available and by the time the January fundraising figures are available, the election will be over.
That is what I would do if I were them and I find out hard to believe that they have not adopted the same strategy. They want the Democrats to stay lulled in their thinking that they have already won this election. If they really are that asleep at the switch at the RNC then maybe all of this activity in the blogosphere criticizing them for dropping the ball will cause them to adopt this strategy now and make it appear it was their strategy all along. If the RNC does pour a million into this race, it can be won as long as the Democrats do not wake up until it is too late.
You can do your part to derail Obama care by going to www.brownforussenate.com and contribute money and/or your time. Even if you do not live in Massachusetts, you can make phone calls for them from home using your cell phone with free long distance calling.
Scott Brown for U. S. Senate
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gemimail,
Have you seen or read anything in the media about a special election in Massachusetts for U. S. Senator in three weeks? Have you even heard a peep in the blogosphere? The all important 60th vote in the Senate that the Democrats need to enact health care and the rest of their agenda is up for grabs and all we get is a yawn? All we can assume is that everyone on both sides of the political aisle just assumes that the Democrats will keep Ted Kennedy's old seat. Ordinarily we would agree but not in a special election held in the freezing cold of Massachusetts in January. The Republicans will turnout much better than the Democrats but apparently everyone thinks it still will not be enough to elect the Republican, Scott Brown.
That is the conventional wisdom. The problem is that while it might be conventional it is not necessarily wisdom. The turnout in the primary held on December 8th was extremely low and there is no reason to expect the general election turnout to be any better. In Massachusetts, the independents decide general elections. The registration figures for the 2008 general election show that there were 1,559,464 Democrats, 490,259 Republicans but 2,141,878 independents. Scott Brown has two opponents, Democrat Massachusetts Attorney General, Martha Coakley, and the Liberty Party candidate, Joe Kennedy. Coakley survived a four way Democrat primary by getting 47% of the votes. Brown won the Republican Party with 89% of the votes.
There is no reason why Scott Brown could not win this election if he had enough money and support. It would appear that the National Republican Party is not putting millions of dollars into this race like it should be doing, but then the national folks are well known for dropping the ball. The big question is why the conservative activists are not behind Scott Brown like they were behind Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 congressional race. One would think that at least making a try to capture that 60th Democrat vote would be in order, but apparently not. Update: The guys at Hillbuzz are now on board and so is Hot Air.
You can do your part to help by going to www.brownforussenate.com and contribute or volunteer to call from home. Clearly this a real sleeper race and maybe, just maybe, even without much help, Scott Brown can pull this off just because everyone is just sitting back and waiting for the Democrat candidate to be crowned. Imagine what a message his victory would send to not only the Obama-Reid-Pelosi crowd but the mainstream media as well. Ted Kennedy's old seat (and Jack Kennedy's too) goes to a Republican. Oh my!
Scott Brown for U. S. Senate
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gemimail,
Even a lot of Conservative activists have not yet realized that if Obama care passes, we are stuck with it until at least 2013. Why is that you ask? Why can't we just repeal the thing after the 2010 elections? As we just found out if we did not already know, it takes 60 votes in the Senate to get anything big done. That not only includes passing legislation but repealing it as well. The Republicans only have 40 votes so they need to gain 20 seats to undo this beast if it passes. There are only 19 Democrat seats in the Senate up for election in 2010. Thus there is no way to get 20 more votes until 2012. Even if we won a lot of seats and managed to get a repeal passed, Obama would veto it and then you need 67 votes in the Senate and 290 in the House.
On top of that, there is no way to gain 19 seats in the Senate. Three of them are lost causes (Schumer, Leahy and Inouye). We have a real chance in Washington and Wisconsin, but there is no viable Republican running and you cannot beat someone with nobody. The bottom line is that Conservatives are royally screwed if Obama care passes because by the time we have enough votes to repeal it, the benefits will be kicking in. Once that happens, it is all over because no one can repeal an entitlement program once the benefits start. Could you repeal Medicare? That right there tells you what we are up against.
The Democrats understand this very well and that is why they are willing to take huge losses in 2010 to get Obama care through. Our only hope is to prevent Obama care from passing in the first place. How can we possibly make sure that it does not pass? The answer is to take the 60th vote away from the Democrats so that the final bill cannot get through the Senate. Apparently lost on just about everyone, including the leadership of the Republican Party, that 60th vote is up for grabs in less than a month from now.
There is a special election being held on January 19th to fill the old Ted Kennedy seat. Ordinarily, a Senate seat in Massachusetts would be a lost cause, but not in a special election. Scott Brown is a viable candidate and he has a real chance to win because special elections have low voter turnout which strongly favors Republicans. Yet no one is getting on board to help this guy because they just assume it is a lost cause. Instead of bitching about how screwed we are, how about doing something about it?
Go to: www.brownforussenate.com and donate every cent you can spare. We can take that 60th vote away from Reid and then health care will never pass. If we do not do this and send the Democrats a real message, we really are screwed. If you live in Massachusetts or even in New Hampshire near the border, volunteer to get the Republican vote out on January 19th. All you need are a list of the voters who are Republicans and their phone number. The Scott campaign should be able to supply that. You just get the phone numbers added to the voter files by a commercial service. I do it for clients all the time. You can do this from your home even if you live somewhere else and have a cell phone with free long distance.
Please listen to a long time political strategist and believe me when I tell you that this is our only chance to stop Obama care dead in its tracks. If you are dead set against Obama care and the takeover of a sixth of our economy by the government, this is how you can do something about it. While I live in Arizona, I was born and raised in Massachusetts. This is doable if everyone will just get busy and help Scott Brown.
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