We find it amazing that the Democrats and the mass media are not making a big deal out of how much trouble the Republicans are in at the moment. Even liberal leaning pundits seem to think that the Bin Laden bounce for Obama has run its course. We do not know where they get this idea because we cannot find one poll that is not positive for Obama and they actually are getting stronger for Obama with every passing day. If the presidential election were to be held now, Obama would be a shoo-in.
Now it is true that the Democrats and the media tried to convince the public that the special election held in New York's district 26 showed that the Ryan budget plan is the kiss of death for the Republicans in 2012 and most pundits did not buy that. The problem is not with the Ryan budget plan but rather with the Republican messaging. They are trying to sell it as as a necessary reform to balance the budget. They keep pushing that line and not only will they not gain control of the Senate in 2012, but they will not defeat Obama and will come close to losing the House of Representatives as well.
At the time of the 2010 elections, the generic congressional ballot was running from 7 to 15 points in favor of the Republicans depending upon which poll you looked at. Right now our average of those polls is actually slightly in favor of the Democrats. Clearly the Republicans have a gigantic messaging problem. How about a message that proclaims they are try to SAVE Medicare before it goes bankrupt? Is that too much to ask of the Republican leadership? The voters voted for Republicans in 2010 in hopes that the Republicans would jam the brakes on all that the Democrats had done in the previous two years.
What have they gotten in exchange for this vain hope? They have gotten Democrat-lite from the Republicans instead. As Obama has said, Democrats bring a gun to a knife fight. The Republicans do not bring a knife or even martial arts to the fight. The Republicans are wimps and they have no clue on how to go for the Democrat jugular. The Democrats run ads proclaiming that the Republicans are trying to destroy Medicare and kill granny. How do the Republicans respond? They point to charts and figures that there is a problem with the financing of Medicare. How about proclaiming that the Democrats are sitting idly by while Medicare goes broke and that this is what will kill granny?
Republicans seem to think that the baby steps they have taken towards controlling government spending are all it takes to win public approval. How about wielding a meat axe instead? Whole departments need to be axed as they are doing more harm than good. Polls showed that a majority of the likely voters did not have a problem with shutting down all but the essential parts of the federal government if that was what it took to get the Democrat's attention to their habit of spending other people's money like a whole carrier group of druken sailors. What did the Republicans give them instead? They gave them cuts that did not even come to the amount the government borrowed while they were arguing about it.
The debt ceiling hike is the last chance the Republicans have to make good on their promises for the 2010 elections. They have just one chance to make believers out of the voting public that they are serious about cutting government spending. They need to refuse to raise the debt limit no matter what cuts the Democrats agree to. The public will support this stand. The folks in Congress need to learn to live within their means just like everyone else has had to do. The Republican leadership (and that means you, Mitch McConnell) need to get in the Democrats' face and stay there no matter how much the media beats up on them for doing that. Frankly, we doubt that the Republicans have the guts to do this and that means that we get four more years of Obama and continued Democrat control of the Senate and perhaps the Democrats regaining control of the House to boot.
The Republican Messaging Problem
Some NH Natives are Getting Restless
From The Marston Chronicles
If one were to take a look at the present political climate and find resistance to an incredibly expensive and ever more pervasive federal government, one might expect to look in fly-over country. So it comes as something of a shock to find the resistance in the midst of the solid blue states of New England. Granted that New Hampshire is less liberal than the rest of New England, but it did go for Obama after all. So how are some of these New Hampshire natives getting restless?
It seems that a some members of the state legislature, called the General Court there, decided that enough was enough. They introduced House Concurrent Resolution 6 that effectively tells the federal government to take a hike. The meat of the resolution minces no words and states:
"That the several States composing the United States of America, are not united on the principle of unlimited submission to their General Government; but that, by a compact under the style and title of a Constitution for the United States, and of amendments thereto, they constituted a General Government for special purposes, -- delegated to that government certain definite powers, reserving, each State to itself, the residuary mass of right to their own self-government; and that whensoever the General Government assumes undelegated powers, its acts are unauthoritative, void, and of no force; that to this compact each State acceded as a State, and is an integral party, its co-States forming, as to itself, the other party: that the government created by this compact was not made the exclusive or final judge of the extent of the powers delegated to itself; since that would have made its discretion, and not the Constitution, the measure of its powers; but that, as in all other cases of compact among powers having no common judge, each party has an equal right to judge for itself, as well of infractions as of the mode and measure of redress; and
That the Constitution of the United States, having delegated to Congress a power to punish treason, counterfeiting the securities and current coin of the United States, piracies, and felonies committed on the high seas, and offences against the law of nations, slavery, and no other crimes whatsoever; and it being true as a general principle, and one of the amendments to the Constitution having also declared, that “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people,” therefore all acts of Congress which assume to create, define, or punish crimes, other than those so enumerated in the Constitution are altogether void, and of no force; and that the power to create, define, and punish such other crimes is reserved, and, of right, appertains solely and exclusively to the respective States, each within its own territory; and
That it is true as a general principle, and is also expressly declared by one of the amendments to the Constitution, that “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people;” and that no power over the freedom of religion, freedom of speech, or freedom of the press being delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, all lawful powers respecting the same did of right remain, and were reserved to the States or the people: that thus was manifested their determination to retain to themselves the right of judging how far the licentiousness of speech and of the press may be abridged without lessening their useful freedom, and how far those abuses which cannot be separated from their use should be tolerated, rather than the use be destroyed. And thus also they guarded against all abridgment by the United States of the freedom of religious opinions and exercises, and retained to themselves the right of protecting the same. And that in addition to this general principle and express declaration, another and more special provision has been made by one of the amendments to the Constitution, which expressly declares, that “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof, or abridging the freedom of speech or of the press:” thereby guarding in the same sentence, and under the same words, the freedom of religion, of speech, and of the press: insomuch, that whatever violated either, throws down the sanctuary which covers the others, and that libels, falsehood, and defamation, equally with heresy and false religion, are withheld from the cognizance of federal tribunals. That, therefore, all acts of Congress of the United States which do abridge the freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, are not law, but are altogether void, and of no force..."
So how do you like them apples, federal government? Not only do your laws suck, but they are null and void, so there. This should keep legions of lawyers busy for a long time should this Resolution be adopted. Anyone else want to jump on this bandwagon?
The Stimulus Package: Fear Mongering and Crisis Propagation, the Liberal Way
Cross posted at Politics and Critical Thinking.
This attempt at breaking down the stimulus from the beginning to the end will not be an easy undertaking, since I am not economist. However, neither is President Obama, he is a lawyer. Nevertheless, there is ample information from sound sources to help the average tax payer understand exactly what the government is asking of them and the other possibilities for economic stimulus. This first addition is a challenge to the government's claim that we are in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Also, this will show how they are propagating fear in order to push their agenda onto the American people.
As far as this blog is concerned, free markets and economics are inexorably connected to the liberty and prosperity of every individual American. This is not to say humankind is free due to capitalism, just that if used properly, it can be the engine of that freedom. Mankind is unarguably born with certain unalienable rights that are derived from Higher, not from monetary, fiscal, or economic policy.
However, despots, tyrants, dictators, and megalomaniacs have learned throughout the years that by manipulating these economic systems they can attain a greater accumulation of power over their citizenry. Infringing on, if not taking away these freedoms, all in the name of the State. Thereby, creating an atmosphere of dependency on the government for even the most basic daily needs.
Even as far back as October, then Senator Obama, was stirring fears that this was the greatest economic downfall since the Great Depression. Recently, even his toadies and acolytes have been echoing the same sentiments. All for the sake of spreading fear and generating hopes that they have the only answers to end this crisis.
Now, only a fool would say, with a straight face, we aren't in hard times and things aren't going to get harder. But the egregious claims and fear mongering of the Obama administration fall apart once you look at history.
According to the Bureau of Labor, from 1930-41 the unemployment rate never dropped below 8.9% and actually went as high as 24.9%. When the recession deepened in circa 1981-82, unemployment sat at well over 10%. We are presently at 7.4%, althoughthis number will undoubtedly get higher, it still remains to be seen whether it tops either of these benchmarks.
As far as GDP, from 1929-1933 there was a major constriction, to put it mildly. The GDP output of the United States in 1929 was $865.2 billion and in 1933 it sat at $635.3 billion, this represents a -29.3% decline in the gross domestic product of the US in a 4 year period. It was not until 1936 when the GDP reached $866.6 billion, did the economy finally overcome the 1929 tally. This represents real growth of only $1.4 billion over a 7 year period. Furthermore, this still does not address the rampant inflation or unemployment most Americans still faced.
In 1981 the GDP sat at $5,291.7 trillion, then in 1982 after a major contraction brought on by the recession it was lowered to $5,189.3 trillion, meaning a decline of -1.9%.
Looking at the breakdown of each quarter in FY 2008 you gain a comparison between them and the previous recessions. In FY 2008 we had 1st quarter growth of .9% (Final Report), 2nd quarter growth was 2.8% (Final Report), the 3rd quarter sat at -.03% (Preliminary Report), and finally 4th quarter results were a -3.8% loss (Advanced Report). Totaling up the BEA's quarterly reports for FY 2008 results in a net loss of -1.3%. The recession of 1981-82 still sets higher in losses by +.6% and there is no contest between the losses that were incurred during the Great Depression years which totaled -29.3%. The best year for declines in GDP, during this time, was actually 1933, when there was a loss, ironically, of -1.3%.
How interesting that once you crunch the numbers you see quite a different picture than what the administration is selling. Quite simply, they are misrepresenting the facts in order to perpetuate fear and panic to gain public support for their expensive and expansive government project. Again this is not to say things are not bad or they will not get worse, this is simply where we are at right now. We have one recession, 27 years ago which was actually worse, yet no one was running around talking about spending our way into oblivion. Quite to the contrary, then President Reagan used tax cuts to stimulate the economy. He brought about huge gains for the American people by creating 20 million new quality jobs under his administration, ushering an era of prosperity and hope that lasted for a little over 15 years.
Please note, the figures presented here are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Read them for yourself, don't take my word for it.
