Thoughts on PA-12

There have been a lot of comments on what happened in the PA-12 special election already. The most ridiculous of them all is the article Politco has entitled The GOP's Special Failure. It helps to know something about politics if you are going to comment on it. The idea that if the Republicans can't win in PA-12, their hopes of carrying the House in November are now hopeless is pure poppycock. The fact is that the Republican Party does not need districts like PA-12 to gain control of the House. We have maintained a list of the 147 districts in play for some time now. Out of that group, we calculate that the Republicans have a better than even chance of carrying 66 of them.

PA-12 was never in that group until today. Why? The best that the Republicans had done in this district was to lose by 15.7% and that was in 2008. Previous years were even worse. Even though McCain-Palin carried this district by a whopping margin of 0.31% at the same time, that does not mean much in a congressional race in Pennsylvania. While the Presidential results do have an impact on projecting a winner in a congressional race, the effect is actually worth of couple of percentage points one way or the other. When it is a virtual tie like in this case, it has a negligible effect on the chances of the Republicans carrying a district.

Before the election, we called this district a Democrat toss-up. We calculated the chances of carrying it at 42.2%. As a result of the special election, we know know that Tim Burns closed that margin to 7.55%. With this new information, we now calculate the chances of winning it in November when all the Republicans turn out at 54.0%. That makes this district now a Republican toss-up for November. The district went from being our 101st best bet to our 51st best bet as a result of the special election. Notice that even now when we need to capture 42 Democrat held districts while losing 2 to gain control of the House, PA-12 is still not on that short list.

Hopefully these factoids will dilute the feelings of glee or despair depending upon your political views. The Democrats won in the short haul but the long haul is another thing entirely. So which districts are now on the list of 66 districts that the Republicans a better than even chance of winning? We thought you would never ask. In the table below, clicking on the probability of the district going Republican (chances) will take you to a detailed write up of the district. Likewise, clicking on the poll figure when there is one will take you to the source of the poll result.

SEAT	EFF MAR	OBAMA	CHANCES	HCV	POLL	OURS	CQ POL	COOK	ROTHBRG	RCP
VA-5	0.23%	-2.31%	93.0%	Yes	Tied	Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Leans R
LA-3	0.50%	-23.96%	#92.7%	Open		Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R
NY-20	0.45%	3.00%	90.0%	Yes	R +9	Likely R	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Leans D
TN-6	#1.21%	-25.28%	#89.5%	Open		Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	R favored	Likely R
AL-2	0.62%	-27.37%	87.2%	No	D +24	Likely R	Toss-up	Leans D	R toss-up	Toss-up
OH-15	0.76%	7.12%	87.0%	Yes		Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Leans R	Leans R
ID-1	1.21%	-25.94%	83.7%	No		Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Toss-up
MD-1	0.79%	-18.45%	83.4%	No	R +13	Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Leans R	Leans R
PA-3	2.47%	-27 votes	81.4%	Yes		Likely R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
MI-7	2.31%	5.23%	80.3%	Yes	R +10	Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
TN-8	#1.28%	13.28%	#79.2%	Open		Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
NY-29	1.93%	-2.22%	78.4%	Open		Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
NY-23	3.11%	5.22%	77.0%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
IN-9	4.52%	-1.76%	#74.4%	Yes	D +1	Leans R	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D	Toss-up
FL-8	4.03%	5.70%	73.5%	Yes		Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Toss-up
AR-2	#4.70%	-9.91%	#70.5%	Open	R +17	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	R toss-up	Leans R
OH-1	4.94%	10.25%	69.1%	Yes	R +17	Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Leans R	Leans R
NH-1	5.89%	6.21%	67.7%	Yes	R +1	Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
NV-3	5.14%	12.76%	67.6%	Yes	R +5	Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
KS-3	#4.78%	2.58%	#66.1%	Open		Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R	R toss-up	Leans R
TX-17	7.48%	-35.17%	65.8%	No	R +12	Leans R	Leans D	D toss-up	D favored	Leans R
NJ-3	3.31%	5.38%	64.2%	No		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
IN-8	#9.44%	3.90%	#63.7%	Yes	R +10	Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R	R toss-up	Leans R
AZ-5	9.58%	-4.53%	63.7%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
NY-24	3.94%	2.36%	62.9%	No		Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
MS-1	10.59%	-23.59%	62.5%	No		Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Leans R
WI-8	8.10%	8.10%	62.0%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Leans D
GA-12	#3.62%	8.84%	61.9%	No		Leans R	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
OH-16	10.73%	-2.61%	61.3%	Yes	R +11	Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
PA-11	3.25%	14.83%	61.3%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D	Leans R
NH-2	5.37%	13.09%	#60.9%	Open	R +15	Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
AZ-8	11.90%	-5.94%	60.9%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
PA-10	12.66%	-8.43%	60.7%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Leans D
VA-2	4.94%	1.96%	59.8%	No		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Toss-up
NM-2	11.92%	-1.33%	59.3%	No	R +2	R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Leans R	Leans R
CO-4	12.39%	-0.88%	58.5%	Yes		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Leans R	Leans R
ND-AL	#15.11%	-8.63%	#57.7%	Yes	R +4	R toss-up	Toss-up	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans R
CA-11	10.55%	9.33%	57.6%	Yes		R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
CT-4	3.97%	20.67%	56.9%	Yes		R toss-up	Leans D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D
IL-11	#11.32%	8.18%	56.9%	Yes	R +6	R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
SD-AL	#7.45%	-8.41%	#56.9%	No	D +4	R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Toss-up
AZ-1	16.45%	-10.17%	56.4%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Leans D	Safe D	Leans D
IN-2	#7.95%	9.38%	#56.0%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Leans D
FL-22	9.34%	4.04%	55.2%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Toss-up
MN-1	#13.98%	4.37%	#54.8%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
MI-1	#14.88%	1.82%	#54.6%	Open		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
WA-3	#9.32%	6.72%	#54.4%	Open		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
MA-10	#12.58%	11.27%	#54.3%	Open	R +3	R toss-up	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D	Toss-up
VA-11	#11.64%	14.96%	54.2%	Yes	R +5	R toss-up	Likely D	Leans D	Safe D	Toss-up
FL-24	16.09%	-1.95%	54.2%	Yes		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
PA-12	9.30%	-0.31%	54.0%	N/A	R +3	R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
PA-7	#12.76%	12.64%	53.6%	Open		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
WI-7	#8.65%	13.39%	#53.3%	Open		R toss-up	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D	Toss-up
NY-25	12.94%	13.12%	53.2%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
IA-3	14.25%	9.37%	52.8%	Yes		R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
AR-1	#20.42%	-20.28%	#52.4%	Open		R toss-up	Leans D	D toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
GA-8	#11.43%	-13.36%	51.9%	No		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
PA-8	15.14%	8.93%	51.8%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
VA-9	#17.57%	-19.10%	#51.7%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
NY-1	16.77%	3.82%	51.3%	Yes	D +2	R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
IL-8	#6.89%	12.88%	51.0%	Yes	Tied	R toss-up	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D
NY-19	17.35%	2.28%	50.9%	Yes		R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
IL-14	15.50%	11.06%	50.7%	Yes	R +1	R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans D
PA-4	11.72%	-10.45%	50.6%	No	R +9	R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	Leans D
MA-5	#6.21%	19.51%	#50.5%	Yes		R toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
OR-5	15.92%	10.62%	50.2%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D