Seeing What You Want to See

Everyone is guilty of this at one time or another. Amongst political junkies it shows as the tendency to cherry pick data that seems to support one's own political point of view. What is even worse than seeing what you want to see is believing what the other side wants you to believe. The Democrats did that at first after Scott Brown got elected. They promptly saw that voting for the health care bill was the political kiss of death, which it was and still is in many districts. They eventually convinced themselves that they were believing what the Republicans wanted them to believe and pushed it through anyway.

On the other hand, the Republicans to this very day are still believing what the Democrats want them to believe. What is more Republicans have been conned into believing that most of the Democrat held seats in the House are "safe" or are at least only marginally vulnerable and so there is no point in seriously contesting any but a few of them. That is absolute bull crappy. Why do Republicans buy into this nonsense? They point to the projections of so-called "experts" as proof that this is true. We hate to tell Republicans this but most of those "experts" are Democrats and their "projections" show their bias big time.

Let's take the case of what will happen in the House of Representatives in the November elections. Even some of the most biased Democrats admit that they will lose a "few" seats in the House. So how many is a few and which seats are we talking about? Since 2008 was a presidential election and 2010 is a midterm election the Democrat turnout will be lower as it always is in midterm elections. When there is a Democrat president, this favoring of the Republicans is strengthened. To see what might happen in 2010, we need to look at a previous midterm election. 2006 was a banner Democrat year and this is not shaping up to be another banner Democrat year.

The 2002 election would appear to be more like we can expect in this election so let's see what the 2002 election tells us. We have arranged the table at the bottom of this article in order by descending Democrat results. That means that Democrat seats that were held by a Republican in 2002 will be a minus figure. In cases where there was no opposition by a major party, we have used the result from the closest year to 2002 where there was opposition. To the table we have added poll results, Obama's margin, the health care vote on 3/21 and ratings by four analysts plus our own.

One thing stands out immediately and that is a forest of the letter "D" in the races carried by Republicans by the widest margins in 2002 even when poll results show the Republican candidate ahead now. How can this be? The short answer is that these projections are highly suspect. Take OH-16 for an example which had a Republican incumbent from 1950 through 2006 and where Rep. Boccieri won with a 10.73% margin in 2008. Obama lost the district by 2.61% and a poll taken 3 days before the health care vote on March 21st shows any Republican candidate ahead of any Democratic candidate by 11 points.

In addition, the poll asks specifically what the respondents would do if "the Republican candidate proposes repealing and overturning the health care reform bill AND Congressman John Boccieri, votes to pass the health care reform bill." By a margin of 53% to 40%, the respondents would vote for the Republican. Rep. Boccieri did vote for the bill and yet this district is rated from leans D to likely D by four different analysts. Why would you believe any of them after that? Isn't our own rating of leans R a tad more realistic? Only Real Clear Politics has ratings that have any validity. At least they think the Republicans will pick up 18 seats with a good chance at 29 more.

If this were the only case then we could say this was just a mistake. Look at NY-20, PA-4 and IL-11 where the Republicans are up from 6 to 9 points in the polls but the other analysts say these seats will likely go Democrat. Look at VA-11 and NV-3 where the Republicans are up 5 points in the polls. Yet only Real Clear Politics sees these two as toss-ups. The other three give the edge to the Democrats by a little or a lot. Stop believing what the experts want you to believe and look at the results of the previous elections if you want to see what will happen in November.

Take NY-27 as another example. Yes, Rep. Higgins was unopposed by a Republican in 2008 and won by a whopping 58.54% margin in 2006. But his margin was only 1.33% in 2004 and the district had a Republican incumbent from 1982 to 2002 including a 41.57% margin in 2002. This is not to say that the Republicans can win this district but to say that it definitely will go Democrat and it is not even in play is another thing entirely. Republicans believe nonsense like this to the point of not even fielding a candidate against Rep. Higgins this year.

There are 13 districts in New York that the Republicans have a chance at winning and yet in three districts (21, 27 and 28), they are letting the Democrat run opposed. Why are Reps. Tonko, Higgins and Slaughter getting a free ride? Rep. Tonko is a freshman and this is not going to be a 2008 type year so his 27% margin does not mean much when Obama is not on the ballot and helping him with an 18.14% margin. Rep. Slaughter only had a 16.57% margin in 1994 so why let her run unopposed? Why do Republicans buy into letting Democrats win by default?

This is not 2006 or 2008. It is not even 2002 but going to be much more like 1994 and perhaps even more so. Republicans need to stop being defeatist. Unless both the Democrat incumbent and Obama won by more than a 30% margin, the district is a possibility. We list 137 districts as being in play unlike all the other analysts. Scott Brown won in the most Democrat state in the union so we know it can be done. Of course the Republicans will not win any 137 seats but surely half of them is not an unreasonable expectation.

Tomorrow there is an election in Florida for Congress. Did you even know that? Is anyone paying any attention? No, because everyone just assumes that the Democrat will win because the Democrats have won in that district since it was created in 1982. Well, hello, this is an OPEN seat. Look at the bottom of the table where you see a lot of the letter "R" in otherwise hopeless districts. At least we have a Republican running in FL-19. Ed Lynch has gotten no support and little money when he had a chance of winning. The best that the Republicans have ever done in this district was 41.15% of the votes. We predict that Ed Lynch will do better than that with no support. With the kind of support Scott Brown got, he could have won.

SEAT	02 MAR	OBAMA	08 MAR	HCV	POLL	OURS	CQ POL	COOK	ROTHBRG	RCP
LA-3	-73.36%	-23.96%	14.72%	Open		Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R
GA-8	-56.66%	-13.36%	14.49%	No		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Likely D
NY-25	-45.65%	13.12%	12.94%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
NY-27	-41.57%	10.16%	58.54%	Yes		R toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
WI-8	-40.32%	8.47%	8.10%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Safe D
AL-2	-39.23%	-27.37%	-39.23%	No	D +24	Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Toss-up
OH-16	-37.74%	-2.61%	10.73%	Yes	R +11	Leans R	Likely D	Leans D	D favored	Leans D
MD-1	-37.69%	-18.45%	0.79%	No	R +13	Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Leans R
IL-14	-37.26%	11.06%	15.50%	Yes	R +1	R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	Safe D	Toss-up
CO-3	-34.53%	-2.54%	23.23%	Yes	D +2	Leans R	Likely D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
NY-19	-33.47%	2.28%	17.35%	Yes		R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
OH-15	-33.18%	7.12%	0.76%	Yes		Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Toss-up
OH-18	-32.33%	-7.86%	19.75%	No		D toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
PA-7	-32.18%	12.64%	19.19%	Open		D toss-up	D toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
NY-20	-32.13%	3.00%	0.45%	Yes	R +9	Likely R	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Leans D
MS-1	-31.99%	-23.54%	10.59%	No		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Toss-up
NJ-3	-31.10%	5.38%	3.31%	No		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Likely D
FL-8	-30.27%	5.70%	4.03%	Yes		Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Leans R
AZ-8	-29.74%	-5.94%	11.90%	Yes		Leans R	Likely D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
OH-1	-29.60%	10.25%	4.94%	Yes	R +17	Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Leans R
PA-4	-29.11%	-10.45%	11.72%	No	R +9	R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Leans D
CT-4	-28.86%	20.06%	3.97%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D
IL-11	-28.64%	8.18%	23.92%	Yes	R +6	R toss-up	Likely D	Leans D	Safe D	Leans D
VA-5	-26.99%	-2.31%	0.23%	Yes	Tied	Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Toss-up
MN-1	-26.100%	4.37%	29.57%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
NY-23	-26.29%	5.22%	2.37%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
PA-8	-25.19%	8.93%	15.14%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
AZ-5	-24.92%	-4.53%	9.58%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
FL-24	-23.68%	-1.95%	16.09%	Yes		R toss-up	Toss-up	Leans D	D toss-up	Toss-up
NY-24	-23.02%	2.36%	3.94%	No		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
FL-22	-22.41%	4.04%	9.34%	Yes		R toss-up	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
VA-11	-22.06%	14.96%	11.64%	Yes	R+5	R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Toss-up
MI-7	-21.04%	5.23%	2.31%	Yes	R +10	Leans R	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
CA-11	-20.63%	9.33%	10.55%	Yes		R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Leans D
PA-3	-20.16%	-27 votes	2.47%	Yes		Likely R	Leans D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D
NH-1	-19.64%	6.21%	5.89%	Yes	R +10	Leans R	Leans D	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
ID-1	-19.63%	-25.94%	1.21%	No		Likely R	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Toss-up
NV-3	-18.81%	12.76%	5.14%	Yes	R +5	Leans R	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D	Toss-up
MI-9	-18.22%	12.96%	9.45%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
KY-6	-18.02%	-12.19%	29.32%	No		D toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
NY-13	-17.99%	-1.82%	27.63%	No		Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
NH-2	-15.95%	13.09%	15.01%	Open	R +7	R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
IL-8	-14.86%	12.88%	21.44%	Yes	Tied	R toss-up	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
IA-1	-14.51%	17.52%	29.19%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
CO-4	-13.27%	-0.88%	12.39%	Yes		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
NC-11	-12.69%	-5.62%	26.13%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
NM-2	-12.51%	-1.33%	11.92%	No	R +2	R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up	Leans R
CT-5	-10.99%	13.94%	20.17%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Likely D
NM-1	-10.68%	20.43%	11.31%	Yes	D +9	D toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Toss-up
GA-12	-10.38%	8.84%	32.00	No		Leans R	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
VA-2	-10.25%	1.96%	4.94%	No		R toss-up	Leans D	D toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
NY-29	-9.86%	-2.22%	1.93%	Open		Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R
NC-8	-9.00%	5.88%	10.76%	No	D +16	D toss-up	Leans D	Likely D	D favored	Likely D
CT-2	-8.18%	18.41%	33.40%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
SD-AL	-7.83%	-8.41%	35.11%	No	D +2	R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Leans D
IA-2	-6.45%	21.61%	18.42%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
IN-8	-5.28%	3.90%	29.50%	Yes	R +10	Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R
PA-10	-5.16%	-8.43%	12.66%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Leans D
IN-2	-4.68%	9.38%	36.86%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
TX-23	-4.32%	2.69%	13.84%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
AZ-1	-3.57%	-10.17%	16.45%	Yes		R toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D
KY-3	-3.22%	12.30%	18.73%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
CO-7	-0.07%	19.07%	26.96%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
UT-2	0.73%	-18.17%	26.88%	No		Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
NY-1	1.64%	3.82%	16.77%	Yes	D +2	R toss-up	Likely D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-up
PA-17	2.82%	-3.45%	27.36%	No		Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	D favored	Toss-up
KS-3	3.22%	2.58%	16.78%	Open		Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	R toss-up	Leans R
PA-13	3.61%	18.05%	28.26%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
TX-17	3.98%	-35.17%	7.48%	No		Leans R	Likely D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
ME-2	4.01%	11.26%	34.87%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
WA-2	4.30%	13.95%	24.78%	Yes		Leans D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
ND-AL	4.81%	-8.63%	23.95%	Yes		R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	Safe D	Leans R
IN-9	5.02%	-1.76%	19.36%	Yes	D +1	Leans R	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D	Toss-up
TN-4	5.59%	-29.81%	20.96%	No		D toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
CA-18	7.90%	20.27%	30.95%	Yes		Leans D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
IA-3	8.37%	9.37%	14.25%	Yes		R toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
MD-2	8.59%	21.59%	47.05%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
OR-5	9.65%	10.62%	15.92%	Yes		D toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
FL-3	10.90%	47.31%	18.57%	Yes		Leans D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
NV-1	11.00%	29.43%	39.32%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
NY-4	13.01%	16.64%	28.01%	Yes		D toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
PA-11	13.18%	14.83%	3.25%	Yes		Leans R	Leans D	Leans D	D favored	Toss-up
AR-2	16.01%	-9.91%	21.08%	Open	R +17	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R
WA-3	23.38%	6.72%	28.03%	Open		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
TN-6	33.59%	-25.78%	35.77%	Open		Leans R	Likely R	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R
AR-1	33.67%	-20.28%	33.14%	Open		Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R	Toss-up	Leans R
MI-1	36.57%	1.82%	32.30%	Open		R toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Safe D
MA-10	38.46%	11.27%	34.94%	Open	R +3	D toss-up	Likely D	D toss-up	D favored	Toss-up
TN-8	42.84%	-13.28%	46.37%	Open		Leans D	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up	Leans R
PA-12	46.97%	-0.31%	15.70%	Open		D toss-up	Toss-up	D toss-up	D favored	Leans R
HI-1	47.94%	42.29%	58.07%	Open		D toss-up	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D