The 40 Needed Republican House Seats

The Republicans need to gain a net of 40 seats to regain control of the House of Representatives. Since every analyst seems to predicting they will lose both the Delaware at large seat and the Louisiana 2 seat, they will need to capture 42 seats currently held by the Democrats. That brings up the question of where these 42 seats will come from. We have our own idea of 74 seats which we believe are either odds on bets or are quite possible for the Republicans to capture. We will list them along with what other analysts think are the chances in the table. Notice that in the top 40 ending with CO-4, the margin of the incumbent Democrat does not go over 10% unless Obama lost the district. Also notice that in addition to the top 40, other analysts think that PA-7 and PA-12 are primarily toss-ups because there is no incumbent Democrat. That makes 42 seats for the Republicans and control by 1 seat after losing two seats. See if you think there are more than 42 seats in the table that the Republicans can capture.

SEAT	MARGIN	OBAMA	MARSTON	CQ POL	COOK	ROTHENBERG
AL-2	0.62%	-27.37%	99.2%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
LA-3	0.50%	-23.96%	98.7%	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R
ID-1	1.21%	-25.94%	95.7%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
MD-1	0.79%	-18.45%	95.4%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
VA-5	0.23%	-2.31%	93.0%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
NY-20	0.45%	3.00%	90.0%	Likely D	Likely D	D favored
OH-15	0.76%	7.12%	87.0%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
NY-29	1.23%	-2.22%	84.4%	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
PA-3	2.47%	Tie	81.4%	Leans D	Likely D	Safe D
MI-7	2.31%	5.23%	80.3%	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
TX-17	7.48%	-35.17%	77.8%	Likely D	Leans D	D favored
NY-23	3.11%	5.22%	77.0%	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
AR-2	#4.70%	-9.91%	76.5%	Leans R	Leans R	Toss-up
NJ-3	3.31%	5.38%	76.2%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
NY-24	3.94%	2.36%	74.9%	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
IN-9	4.52%	-1.76%	73.8%	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D
FL-8	4.03%	5.70%	73.5%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
PA-11	3.25%	14.83%	73.3%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
KS-3	#4.78%	2.58%	72.1%	Likely R	Leans R	R toss-up
VA-2	4.94%	1.96%	71.8%	Leans D	D toss-up	D toss-up
TN-6	#9.30%	-25.78%	71.1%	Likely R	Likely R	Leans R
AR-1	#8.45	-20.28%	70.9%	Toss-up	Leans R	Toss-up
OH-1	4.94%	10.25%	69.1%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
CT-4	3.97%	20.06%	68.9%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
MS-1	10.59%	-23.54%	68.5%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
NH-1	5.89%	6.21%	67.7%	Leans D	D toss-up	Toss-up
NV-3	5.14%	12.76%	67.6%	Leans D	D toss-up	Leans D
AZ-5	9.58%	-4.53%	63.9%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
PA-4	11.72%	-10.45%	62.6%	Likely D	Likely D	D favored
NH-2	7.10%	13.09%	62.5%	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
MA-5	#6.21%	19.51%	62.5%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
WI-8	8.10%	8.10%	62.0%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
OH-16	10.73%	-2.61%	61.3%	Likely D	Leans D	D favored
FL-22	9.34%	4.04%	61.2%	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D
AZ-8	11.90%	-5.94%	60.9%	Likely D	Leans D	D favored
PA-10	12.66%	-8.43%	60.7%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
WA-3	#9.32%	6.72%	60.4%	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
GA-8	14.49%	-13.36%	60.1%	Likely D	Likely D	D favored
NM-2	11.92%	-1.33%	59.3%	Toss-up	D toss-up	R toss-up
CO-4	12.39%	-0.88%	58.5%	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
NC-8	10.76%	5.88%	58.4%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
MI-9	9.45%	12.96%	58.1%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
CA-11	10.55%	9.33%	57.6%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
AZ-1	16.45%	-10.17%	57.4%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
TX-23	13.84%	2.69%	55.6%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
TN-4	20.96%	-29.81%	54.3%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
MA-10	#10.58%	11.27%	54.3%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
ME-1	9.80%	22.82%	54.2%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
FL-24	16.09%	-1.95%	54.2%	Leans D	Leans D	D toss-up
PA-12	15.70%	-0.31%	54.2%	Toss-up	D toss-up	D favored
VA-11	11.72%	14.96%	54.1%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
PA-7	#12.76%	12.64%	53.6%	Toss-up	D toss-up	Toss-up
NY-25	12.94%	13.12%	53.2%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
MA-6	#12.18%	16.94%	52.9%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
NM-1	11.31%	20.43%	52.8%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
IA-3	14.25%	9.37%	52.8%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
VA-9	#20.37%	-19.10%	52.2%	Safe D	Leans D	D favored
PA-8	15.14%	8.93%	51.8%	Likely D	Leans D	D favored
NY-1	15.77%	3.82%	51.3%	Likely D	Leans D	Leans D
IL-17	#14.25%	14.24%	51.1%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
NY-19	17.35%	2.28%	50.9%	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
IL-14	15.50%	11.06%	50.7%	Leans D	Leans D	Safe D
CA-10	10.28%	31.66%	50.5%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
AR-4	#21.21%	-18.81%	50.2%	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D
OR-5	16.00%	10.62%	50.1%	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
OH-18	19.75%	-7.86%	49.8%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
ND-AL	#19.16%	-8.63%	48.4%	Leans D	Leans D	D favored
MA-3	#15.42%	19.35%	48.0%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
HI-1	#10.26%	42.29%	47.0%	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
KY-3	18.73%	12.30%	45.2%	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D
TX-27	19.57%	7.34%	45.2%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
OH-10	17.90%	20.26%	44.0%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
IA-2	18.42%	21.61%	42.7%	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
CT-5	20.17%	13.94%	41.6%	Likely D	Likely D	D favored

You can see that the analysts seldom agree on any given seat. This is because the other three analysts use subjective criteria which produces a "seat of the pants" rating than using purely objective criteria like we do. We use a mathematical formula based strictly on the incumbent's winning margin and the margin that Obama-Biden got in the 2008 presidential election. We feel that any other approach invites introducing too many judgment calls that are hard to statistically evaluate. In our opinion, these judgment calls lead to what what can only be called many surprising ratings by the other analysts.

You will see three D's in several districts when the winning margin is less than 5% and in two cases where Obama did not even carry the district (NY-29 and PA-3). Rep. Murphy in NY-20 won by less than one-half of 1% in a terrible Republican year and yet all three think he will win easily in what looks to be a banner Republican year. You will also notice that the other analysts ignore all of Massachusetts but MA-10 even though Scott Brown carried six districts by over 56%. They also ignore Maine 1 even though Rep. Pingree won by less than a 10% margin. They say that CT-5 is in play when Rep. Murphy got over a 20% margin and Obama had almost a 14% margin, yet in TX-27 they say that Rep. Ortiz is home free with a margin of less than 20% but where Obama got a margin of less than 8%. Go figure. Perhaps now that Rep. Ortiz has hints of a scandal, the other analysts will change their ratings.

A final note about our own ratings which are expressed in the percentage probability of the district being captured by the Republicans. When there is a # in front of the Democrat margin, it means we did not use the 2008 margin. This could be due to the fact that the seat is open so we used a margin from an earlier election under similar circumstances. It could also mean that the Democrat was unopposed by the Republicans and we were forced to use an earlier election in which the Democrat did have Republican opposition. Finally there are a couple of cases where polls or later election results (VA, NJ, MA) indicate that the election will be closer than the 2008 margin would predict so we have used a margin from a year with closer results.

Just because we list a district as having a better than even chance (50% or better) of going Republican does not mean we believe it will necessarily go Republican. An odds on bet is never a sure thing even when the percentage is above 90%. For example a Public Policy Polling result shows Rep. Perriello in VA-5 is tied with his best Republican opponent even though he has a 93.0% chance of losing. Our present mathematical formula does not allow for local conditions that vary from district to district. As we get closer to the election, we will introduce more variables into the formula to account for such conditions. One thing we may introduce quite soon is an allowance for the Democrat voting no on the Pelosi health care bill which based on some polls seems to be insulating some Democrats from being in trouble compared to others who voted yes.